Circular 1147: Predictive Production Rate Life-Cycle Model for SW Virginia Coalfields

U.S. Geological Survey: Science for a Changing World

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U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CIRCULAR 1147

A Predictive Production Rate Life-Cycle Model for Southwestern Virginia Coalfields

by
Robert C. Milici
U.S. Geological Survey
Reston, VA 20192

and

Elisabeth V. M. Campbell
Virginia Division of Mineral Resources
Charlottesville, VA 22902

CONTENTS

Introduction
Resources, Reserves, Forecasts, and Projections
The Use of Historical Production Data to Predict Future Coal Production Rates
Projections
Conclusions
References Cited

ILLUSTRATIONS
Figure 1. Location of the southwestern Virginia coalfields
Figure 2. Sulfur content of Virginia's coals
Figure 3A.Production decline projection
Figure 3B. Reserve decline projection
Figure 4. Comparison of historical production data for Pennsylvania anthracite and Virginia bituminous coal
Figure 5. Declining coal reserves at Virginia's mines
Figure 6. Coal production from mines producing more than 300,000 tons of coal annually
Figure 7. Coal projection for Virginia based on current production decline rates
Figure 8. Coal projection for Virginia based on reserve decline rates

TABLES
Table 1. Hypothetical coal reserve estimates for Virginia
Table 2. Hypothetical coal reserves by sulfur content
Table 3. Comparison of recent hypothetical coal reserve estimates for Virginia
Table 4. Production, cumulative production, and hypothetical remaining reserve for the southwestern Virginiacoalfields
Table 5. Production from major coal beds in southwestern Virginia since 1972
Table 6. Declining reserves at Virginia's coal mines
Table 7. Virginia coal production (milllions of tons) from mines producing more than 300,000 tons of coal annually, 1990-1995

Manuscript approved for publication September 17, 1997

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This page is URL: https://pubs.usgs.gov/circular/c1147/
For more information, please contact Robert C. Milici
Last revised 9-17-97 (Kathie Watson)