Figure 7. Summary of the 2002 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimate of economically recoverable oil that may occur beneath the Federal part of NPRA. A , Graph relating market price to the volume of oil estimated to be profi tably recoverable. The three curves are based on estimates of technically recoverable oil volumes at the mean (expected) value, and at the 95% (F95) and 5% (F05) probabilities. The 95% probability level means that there is a 19 in 20 chance that the amount economically recoverable will be at least as large as the amount shown; the 5% probability level means that there is a 1 in 20 chance that the amount economically recoverable will be at least as large as the amount shown. Included are the costs of fi nding, developing, producing, and transporting oil to market (West Coast of the lower-48 States) based on a 12% after-tax return on investment, all calculated in constant 2001 dollars. The chart is read as follows: At a market price of $25 per barrel, there is a 95% probability of at least 1.6 billion barrels of economically recoverable oil and a 5% probability of at least 6.2 billion barrels. The mean or expected value is at least 3.7 billion barrels of economically recoverable oil. So that estimates of economically recoverable oil for the NPRA can be compared with those for the ANWR 1002 Area, the graph shows the mean curve (dashed line) from the 1998 USGS assessment of ANWR Federal lands, which was calculated in constant 1996 dollars. B , Histograms showing the expected (mean) numbers of oil accumulations estimated to exist in various size categories of technically recoverable oil resources in the 2002 USGS assessment of NPRA (dark green) and in the 1998 USGS assessment of ANWR (light green). Note that each size class is twice as big as the next smaller size class. The ANWR area is estimated to contain more accumulations in the largest two size classes shown, whereas the NPRA area is estimated to contain more accumulations in all the smaller size classes. C , Table of economically recoverable oil resources estimated to occur in the Federal parts of NPRA and ANWR assessment areas at various market prices. Values are based on the mean curves shown in A . NPRA results are calculated in constant 2001 dollars, whereas ANWR results are calculated in constant 1996 dollars.
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