Earthquake Hazards Program
In a new comprehensive study, scientists have determined that the chance of having one or more magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquakes in the California area over the next 30 years is greater than 99%. Such quakes can be deadly, as shown by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta and the 1994 magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquakes. The likelihood of at least one even more powerful quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years is 46%—such a quake is most likely to occur in the southern half of the State. Building codes, earthquake insurance, and emergency planning will be affected by these new results, which highlight the urgency to prepare now for the powerful quakes that are inevitable in California’s future.
Download this report as a 4-page PDF file (fs2008-3027.pdf; 1.7 MB).
For questions about the content of this report, contact Ned Field
Suggested citation and version history
The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2) USGS Open File Report 2007-1437/CGS Special Report 203/SCEC Contribution #1138
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This report is also available in print from:
USGS Information Services, Box 25286,
Federal Center, Denver, CO 80225
telephone: 888 ASK-USGS; e-mail: infoservices@usgs.gov
U.S. Department of the Interior | U.S. Geological Survey
URL: https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3027/
Page Contact Information: Michael Diggles
Page Last Modified: August 25, 2008
(mfd)
