Famine Early Warning Systems Network—Informing Climate Change Adaptation Series
A Climate Trend Analysis of Sudan
By Chris Funk1, Gary Eilerts 2, Jim Verdin 1, Jim Rowland 1, and Michael Marshall 1
- Summer rains in western and southern Sudan
have declined by 10–20 percent since the mid-1970s.
- Observed warming of more than 1 degree
Celsius is equivalent to another 10–20 percent
reduction in rainfall for crops.
- The warming and drying have impacted southern
Darfur and areas around Juba.
- Rainfall declines west of Juba threaten southern
Sudan’s future food production prospects.
- In many cases, areas with changing climate
are coincident with zones of substantial conflict,
suggesting some degree of association;
however, the contribution of climate change
to these conflicts is not currently understood.
- Rapid population growth and the expansion
of farming and pastoralism under a more
variable climate regime could dramatically
increase the number of at-risk people in Sudan
over the next 20 years.
First posted July 11, 2011
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Funk, C., Eilerts, G., Verdin, J., Rowland, J., Marshall, M., 2011, A climate trend analysis of Sudan, U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2011-3072, 6 p.