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Fact Sheet 2012–3070

Famine Early Warning Systems Network—Informing Climate Change Adaptation Series

A Climate Trend Analysis of Chad

By Chris Funk, Jim Rowland, Alkhalil Adoum, Gary Eilerts, and Libby White

Thumbnail of and link to report PDF (1.51 MB)Abstract

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies significant decreases in rainfall and increases in air temperature across Chad, especially in the eastern part of the country. These analyses are based on quality-controlled station observations.

Conclusions:
• Summer rains have decreased in eastern Chad during the past 25 years.
• Temperatures have increased by 0.8° Celsius since 1975, amplifying the effect of droughts.
• Crop yields are very low and stagnant.
• The amount of farmland per person is low, and declining rapidly.
• Population growth combined with stagnating yields could lead to a 30 percent reduction in per capita cereal production by 2025.
• In many cases, areas with changing climate are coincident with zones of substantial conflict, indicating some degree of association; however, the contribution of climate change to these conflicts is not currently understood.

First posted June 21, 2012

For additional information contact:
Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center
U.S. Geological Survey
47914 252nd Street
Sioux Falls, South Dakota 57198
http://eros.usgs.gov/

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Suggested citation:

Funk, C., Rowland, J., Eilerts, G., Adoum, A. and White, L., 2012, A Climate Trend Analysis of Chad, U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2012–3070, 4 p.



Contents

Conclusions

Food Security Context: Drying Trends in Food Insecure Areas in Eastern Chad

Rainfall Declines in the 2000s

Much Warmer Air Temperatures

Population Pressure and Stagnating Agricultural Growth

A Convergence of Evidence

Some Implications for Food Security and Adaptations

Objectives and Methods

References


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