Fact Sheet 2012–3121
AbstractEach day, the U.S. Geological Survey produces 7-day forecasts for all Federal lands of the distributions of number of ignitions, number of fires above a given size, and conditional probabilities of fires growing larger than a specified size. The large fire probability map is an estimate of the likelihood that ignitions will become large fires. The large fire forecast map is a probability estimate of the number of fires on federal lands exceeding 100 acres in the forthcoming week. The ignition forecast map is a probability estimate of the number of fires on Federal land greater than 1 acre in the forthcoming week. The extreme event forecast is the probability estimate of the number of fires on Federal land that may exceed 5,000 acres in the forthcoming week. |
First posted October 29, 2012 For additional information contact: Part or all of this report is presented in Portable Document Format (PDF); the latest version of Adobe Reader or similar software is required to view it. Download the latest version of Adobe Reader, free of charge. |
Eidenshink, J.C., and Howard, S.M., United States Geological Survey fire science—Fire danger monitoring and forecasting (ver. 2, July 2015): U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2012–3121, 2 p., https://dx.doi.org/10.3133/fs20123121.