Geographic Analysis and Monitoring Program

U.S. Geological Survey
Open-File Report 2008-1310
Version 1.0

A Bernoulli Formulation of the Land-Use Portfolio Model

By Richard A. Champion

2008

screenshot showing ArcGIS computer-screen window with map of the San Francisco Bay Area
ArcGIS Land-use Portfolio Modeler (LUPM) Extension (from figure 1).

Introduction

Decision making for natural-hazards mitigation can be sketched as knowledge available in advance (a priori), knowledge available later (a posteriori), and how consequences of the mitigation decision might be viewed once future outcomes are known. Two outcomes—mitigating for a hazard event that will occur, and not mitigating for a hazard event that will not occur—can be considered narrowly correct. Two alternative outcomes—mitigating for a hazard event that will not occur, and not mitigating for a hazard event that will occur—can be considered narrowly incorrect. The dilemma facing the decision maker is that mitigation choices must be made before the event, and often must be made with imperfect statistical techniques and imperfect data.


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