Skip Links

USGS - science for a changing world

U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010-1019

USGS–WHOI–DPRI Coulomb Stress-Transfer Model for the January 12, 2010, MW=7.0 Haiti Earthquake

By Jian Lin, Ross S. Stein, Volkan Sevilgen, and Shinji Toda

ABSTRACT

Thumbnail of and link to report PDF (2.2 MB)

Using calculated stress changes to faults surrounding the January 12, 2010, rupture on the Enriquillo Fault, and the current (January 12 to 26, 2010) aftershock productivity, scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), and Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University (DPRI) have made rough estimates of the chance of a magnitude (Mw)≥7 earthquake occurring during January 27 to February 22, 2010, in Haiti. The probability of such a quake on the Port-au-Prince section of the Enriquillo Fault is about 2 percent, and the probability for the section to the west of the January 12, 2010, rupture is about 1 percent. The stress changes on the Septentrional Fault in northern Haiti are much smaller, although positive.

  • This report is available only on the Web.

For additional information:
Contact Information, Earthquake Hazards Program, Northern California
U.S. Geological Survey
345 Middlefield Road, MS 977
Menlo Park, California 94025
http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/

This report is presented in Portable Document Format (PDF); the latest version of Adobe Reader or similar software is required to view it. Download the latest version of Adobe Reader, free of charge.


Suggested citation:

Lin, Jian, Stein, Ross S., Sevilgen, Volkan, and Toda, Shinji, 2010, USGS-WHOI-DPRI Coulomb stress-transfer model for the January 12, 2010, MW=7.0 Haiti earthquake: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010-1019, 7 p.



Contents

Abstract

Motivation

Interpretation of Stress Changes on the Enriquillo Fault

Probability of a Future Large Enriquillo Fault Rupture

Stress Imparted to the Septentrional Fault and Thrust Faults

Modeling Parameters and Assumptions

Source-Model Tests

Acknowledgements

References


Accessibility FOIA Privacy Policies and Notices

Take Pride in America logo USA.gov logo U.S. Department of the Interior | U.S. Geological Survey
URL: http:// pubs.usgs.gov /of/2010/1019/index.html
Page Contact Information: USGS Publications Team
Page Last Modified: Saturday, 12-Jan-2013 16:37:58 EST