Evaluating the performance of a crop water balance model in estimating regional crop production

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Abstract

The comparison between a spatially distributed crop index and reported yield was evaluated. The crop index was generated by a crop water balance model that simulates the reduction of crop yield (as a percentage of the potential) due to water deficit. This model is currently operational as a monitoring and forecasting tool for region-wide food security analyses in drought prone countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The most important input parameters of the model are Africa-wide satellite-based rainfall estimate images and spatially distributed potential evapotranspiration images calculated from 6-hourly numerical weather model data. District level crop yield data from Ethiopia were used to evaluate the performance of the model. Historical sorghum yield data from 1996-1999 were used to evaluate the performance of a seasonal water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI) for sorghum. WRSI values and reported district yield data were significantly correlated. The WRSI model was particularly successful in capturing the response of the crop during a relatively dry year. In districts that never experienced water deficit during the study period, it was possible to infer the magnitude of yield variability that was caused by factors other than water supply.

Study Area

Publication type Conference Paper
Publication Subtype Conference Paper
Title Evaluating the performance of a crop water balance model in estimating regional crop production
Year Published 2002
Language English
Publisher ISPRS
Contributing office(s) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center
Description 8 p.
Larger Work Type Book
Larger Work Subtype Conference publication
Larger Work Title ISPRS archives – Volume XXXIV part 1, 2002
Conference Title ISPRS Commission: Mid-Term Symposium in conjunction with Pecora 15/Land Satellite Information IV Conference Integrated Remote Sensing at the Global, Regional and Local Scale
Conference Location Denver, CO
Conference Date Nov 10-15, 2002
Country Central African Republic, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda
Other Geospatial Sub-Saharan Africa
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