Comparing snowpack meteorological inputs to support regional wet snow avalanche forecasting

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Abstract

Wet snow avalanches are predicted to increase in frequency with climate change and are often difficult to forecast. Improving our understanding of wet snow avalanche timing will help with current forecasting challenges. The onset of wet snow avalanching is closely tied to the temporal progression of liquid water flow through the seasonal snowpack. Measuring the flow of water through the snowpack in-situ is difficult due to the spatial variability of snow depth and structure. However, physical snowpack models can potentially simulate this process. The accuracy of snowpack models is heavily dependent upon the quality of the meteorological input data. A thorough investigation of model output differences using several different meteorological inputs for forecasting water movement and wet snow avalanches has not yet been thoroughly investigated. Here, we evaluate indicators of regional wet snow avalanches produced by the SNOWPACK model using different meteorological input. We compare the accuracy of SNOWPACK modeled outputs driven by two different numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast models: the High-Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) and the North American Model (NAMnest). We leverage hourly automated weather station data, daily operational avalanche observations along the Going-to-the-Sun Road in Glacier National Park, Montana, United States, and in-situ snow stratigraphy and wetness profile observations to validate the SNOWPACK modeled outputs. This research is directly applicable to avalanche forecasting operations and future avalanche research as wet snow avalanche timing evolves due to climate change.

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Publication type Conference Paper
Publication Subtype Conference Paper
Title Comparing snowpack meteorological inputs to support regional wet snow avalanche forecasting
Year Published 2023
Language English
Publisher International Snow Science Workshop
Contributing office(s) Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center
Description 8 p.
Larger Work Type Book
Larger Work Subtype Conference publication
Larger Work Title Proceedings, International Snow Science Workshop 2023
First page 264
Last page 271
Conference Title International Snow Science Workshop 2023
Conference Location Bend, OR
Conference Date October 8-13, 2023
Country United States
State Montana
Other Geospatial Glacier National Park, Going-to-the-Sun Road study area
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