Contributions to uncertainty in runup forecasts
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Abstract
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides operational forecasts of total water levels (TWL) and coastal change. Uncertainties around forecast TWL are based on the temporal and spatial range of observed beach slopes near the forecast site. This paper investigates other sources of uncertainty that are not accounted for, focusing on four beaches where the USGS has deployed remote cameras, and on outer Cape Cod, which has diverse bar morphologies. We find that the range of runup indicated by ten formulae is nearly as large as the variations caused by the range of beach slopes. A formula that accounts for bar morphology substantially decreases calculated runup, and might improve forecasts. Errors in the timing of forecast storm landfall generate uncertainties in TWL where tides are large. Analyses suggest that the effect of off-normal incident waves is relatively small. These results suggest opportunities for improving the TWL forecasts.
Study Area
| Publication type | Conference Paper |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Conference Paper |
| Title | Contributions to uncertainty in runup forecasts |
| DOI | 10.1142/9789811275135_0037 |
| Volume | Beaches |
| Year Published | 2023 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | World Scientific |
| Contributing office(s) | St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center |
| Description | 18 p. |
| Larger Work Type | Book |
| Larger Work Subtype | Conference publication |
| Larger Work Title | The proceedings of the Coastal Sediments 2023 |
| First page | 401 |
| Last page | 418 |
| Conference Title | Coastal Sediments 2023 |
| Conference Location | New Orleans, Louisiana, United States |
| Conference Date | April 11-15, 2023 |
| Country | United States |
| State | Massachusetts |
| Other Geospatial | Cape Cod |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |