Scientific Investigations Report 2010–5233
ABSTRACT
The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), Section 712, mandates the U.S. Department of the Interior to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of the Nation’s ecosystems, focusing on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and emissions of three greenhouse gases (GHGs): carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The major requirements include (1) an assessment of all ecosystems (terrestrial systems, such as forests, croplands, wetlands, grasslands/shrublands; and aquatic ecosystems, such as rivers, lakes, and estuaries); (2) an estimate of the annual potential capacities of ecosystems to increase carbon sequestration and reduce net GHG emissions in the context of mitigation strategies (including management and restoration activities); and (3) an evaluation of the effects of controlling processes, such as climate change, land-use and land-cover change, and disturbances such as wildfires. The concepts of ecosystems, carbon pools, and GHG fluxes follow conventional definitions in use by major national and international assessment or inventory efforts. In order to estimate current ecosystem carbon stocks and GHG fluxes and to understand the potential capacity and effects of mitigation strategies, the method will use two time periods for the assessment: 2001 through 2010, which establishes a current ecosystem carbon and GHG baseline and will be used to validate the models; and 2011 through 2050, which will be used to assess potential capacities based on a set of scenarios. The scenario framework will be constructed using storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), along with both reference and enhanced land-use and land-cover (LULC) and land-management parameters. Additional LULC and land-management mitigation scenarios will be constructed for each storyline to increase carbon sequestration and reduce GHG fluxes in ecosystems. Input from regional experts and stakeholders will be solicited to construct these scenarios. The methods for mapping the current LULC and ecosystem disturbances will require the extensive use of both remote-sensing data and field-survey data (for example, forest inventories) to capture and characterize landscape-changing events. For potential LULC changes and ecosystem disturbances, key drivers such as socioeconomic and climate changes will be used in addition to the biophysical data. The result of these analyses will be a series of maps for each future year for each scenario. These annual maps will form the basis for estimating carbon storage and GHG emissions. For terrestrial ecosystems, carbon storage, carbon-sequestration capacities, and GHG emissions under the present conditions and future scenarios will be assessed using the LULC-change and ecosystem-disturbance estimates in map format with a spatially explicit biogeochemical ensemble modeling system that incorporates properties of management activities (such as tillage or harvesting) and properties of individual ecosystems (such as energy exchange, vegetation characteristics, hydrological cycling, and soil attributes). For aquatic ecosystems, carbon burial in sediments and fluxes of GHG are functions of the present and future potential stream flow and sediment transport and will be assessed using empirical hydrological modeling methods. Validation and uncertainty analysis methods described in the methodology will follow established guidelines to assess the quality of the assessment results. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Level II ecoregions map will be the practical instrument for developing and delivering assessment results. Consequently, the ecoregion (there are 22 modified ecoregions) will be the reporting unit of the assessment because the scenarios, assessment results, validation, and uncertainty analysis will be produced at that scale. The implementation of these methods will require collaborations among various Federal agencies, State agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and the science community. Using the method described in this document, the assessment can be completed in approximately 3 to 4 years. The primary deliverables will be assessment reports containing tables, charts, and maps that will present the estimated GHG parameters annually for 2001 through 2050 by ecosystem, pool, and scenario. The results will permit the evaluation of a range of policies, mitigation options, and research topics, such as the demographic, LULC-change, or climate-change effects on carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and GHG fluxes in ecosystems. |
First posted November 2010 This edition supersedes USGS Open-File Report 2010-1144, “Public Review Draft: A Method for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Ecosystems of the United States Under Present Conditions and Future Scenarios ,” by Zhiliang Zhu (editor), Brian Bergamaschi, Richard Bernknopf, David Clow, Dennis Dye, Stephen Faulkner, William Forney, Robert Gleason, Todd Hawbaker, Jinxun Liu, Shuguang Liu, Stephen Prisley, Bradley Reed, Matthew Reeves, Matthew Rollins, Benjamin Sleeter, Terry Sohl, Sarah Stackpoole, Stephen Stehman, Robert Striegl, Anne Wein, and Zhiliang Zhu.
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Zhu, Zhiliang, ed., Bergamaschi, Brian, Bernknopf, Richard, Clow, David, Dye, Dennis, Faulkner, Stephen, Forney, William, Gleason, Robert, Hawbaker, Todd, Liu, Jinxun, Liu, Shuguang, Prisley, Stephen, Reed, Bradley, Reeves, Matthew, Rollins, Matthew, Sleeter, Benjamin, Sohl, Terry, Stackpoole, Sarah, Stehman, Stephen, Striegl, Robert, Wein, Anne, and Zhu, Zhiliang, 2010, A method for assessing carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the United States under present conditions and future scenarios: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2010–5233, 190 p. (Also available at http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5233/.) (Supersedes U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010–1144.)
Acknowledgments
Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007
Executive Summary
1. Introduction
1.1. Requirements of Section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007
1.2. Understanding the Concepts and Requirements of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007
1.2.1. Assessment
1.2.2. Ecosystems
1.2.3. Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies
1.2.4. Carbon-Sequestration Capacity
1.2.5. Processes That Control the Flux of Covered Greenhouse Gases
1.2.6. Management Activities and Restoration Activities
1.2.7. Range of Policies
1.2.8. Use of Native Plant Species
1.2.9. Measuring, Monitoring, and Quantifying
1.2.10. Use of Economic and Other Systems Models, Analyses, and Estimates
1.3. Summary
2. Review of Concepts and Literature
2.1. Major Carbon-Cycle Processes and Pools
2.2. Current Knowledge of the Carbon Cycle and Greenhouse Gas-Fluxes in the United States
2.3. Effects of Major Controlling Processes
2.3.1. Effects of Changes in Land Use, Land Cover, and Land Management
2.3.2. Effects of Ecosystem Disturbances
2.3.3. Effects of Climate Change, Elevated Carbon Dioxide, and Nitrogen Fertilization
2.4. Carbon Sequestration and Ecosystem Services
2.5. Ongoing Global and National Carbon and Greenhouse-Gas Inventories and Assessments
2.5.1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Scenarios and Guidelines
2.5.2. Examples of Continental-Scale Greenhouse-Gas Inventories and Assessments
2.5.3. Existing National-Scale Inventories and Assessments in the United States
2.5.4. Uncertainty Assessment and Reporting in Existing National Assessments
2.5.5. Economic Analysis and Its Use in Existing National Assessments
3. Methodology for the National Assessment
3.1. Introduction
3.1.1. Design Requirements and Goals for the Assessment
3.1.2. Scope of Assessment
3.1.3. Methodology Constraints
3.1.4. Collaborations for the Assessment
3.1.5. Methodology Organization
3.2. Methodology Framework
3.2.1. Framework for Assessing Current Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes
3.2.2. Framework for Assessing Future Potential Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes
3.2.3. Methodology Framework Summary
3.3. Introduction to Assessment Methods
3.3.1. Technical Plan for Key National Datasets
3.3.2. Land-Use and Land-Cover Change
3.3.3. Ecosystem Disturbances
3.3.4. Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems
3.3.5. Carbon Sequestration and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes of Aquatic Ecosystems
3.3.6. Analyses of Assessment Results—Mitigation Activities, Ecosystem Services, Costs, and Benefits
3.3.7. Validation Methods
3.3.8. Methods for Assessing and Reporting Uncertainty
3.3.9. Requirements of Section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act for Measuring and Monitoring
3.4. Data Products, Deliverables, and Reports
3.4.1. Data Products
3.4.2. Assessment Reporting
4. Conducting the National Assessment
4.1. Operational Issues
4.2. Major Scientific Research and Development Needs
4.3. Intended Applications
References Cited
Glossary
Appendix A. Reference and Alternative Mitigation Scenarios
Appendix B. Land-Use and Land-Cover Modeling
Appendix C. Characterization and Modeling of Major Ecosystem Disturbances
Appendix D. Methods for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes of Terrestrial Ecosystems
Appendix E. Methods for Assessing Carbon Stocks, Carbon Sequestration, and Greenhouse-Gas Fluxes of Aquatic Ecosystems
Appendix F. Methods for Analyzing Ecosystem Services and Benefits and Costs of Mitigation Activities
Appendix G. Methods for Validation and Uncertainty Assessment
Appendix H. Methods for Energy Independence and Security Act Measuring and Monitoring Requirements
Appendix I. Data Management Technical Plan
U.S. Department of the Interior |
U.S. Geological Survey
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