Abstract

The reserve growth of fields has been a topic for ongoing discussion for over half a century and will continue to be studied well into the future. This is due to the expected size of the volumetric contribution of reserve growth to the future supply of oil and natural gas. Understanding past methods of estimating future volumes based on the data assembly methods that have been used can lead to a better understanding of their applicability. The statistical nature of past methods and the (1) possible high level of dependency on a limited number of fields, (2) assumption of an age-based correlation with effective reserve growth, and (3) assumption of long-lived and more common than not reserve growth, may be improved by employing a more geologically based approach.

First posted May 29, 2013