Abstract

Model simulation of the Manasquan Water Supply System in Monmouth County, New Jersey, was completed using historic hydrologic data to evaluate the effects of operational and withdrawal alternatives on the Manasquan reservoir and pumping system. Changes in the system operations can be simulated with the model using precipitation forecasts.

The Manasquan Reservoir system model operates by using daily streamflow values, which were reconstructed from historical U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station records. The model is able to run in two modes--General Risk analysis Model (GRAM) and Position Analysis Model (POSA). The GRAM simulation procedure uses reconstructed historical streamflow records to provide probability estimates of certain events, such as reservoir storage levels declining below a specific level, when given an assumed set of operating rules and withdrawal rates. POSA can be used to forecast the likelihood of specified outcomes, such as streamflows falling below statutory passing flows, associated with a specific working plan for the water-supply system over a period of months.

The user can manipulate the model and generate graphs and tables of streamflows and storage, for example. This model can be used as a management tool to facilitate the development of drought warning and drought emergency rule curves and safe yield values for the water-supply system.