Scenario 3
Scenario 3 presents a model simulation conducted to determine the effects of
increased pumpage throughout most of the model area with removal
of selected industrial withdrawals in Pine Bluff and El Dorado
for the period 1998-2027. This scenario provides information
on aquifer conditions in the region if the water withdrawal rates
continue to increase while conservation initiatives in Pine Bluff
and El Dorado support a reduction in industrial use as in scenario
2. The baseline 1990-97 withdrawal rate was linearly increased
by 25 percent over the 30-year period from 1998 to 2027.
The simulation period was segmented into six stress periods of
5 years each. Withdrawal rates at each well were multiplied by
an appropriate percentage for each stress period that totals a
25 percent increase over 30 years.
The results of scenario 3 show that throughout most of the
model area the predicted hydraulic heads for this scenario
are higher than levels predicted for scenario 1
and that substantial recovery results in the cones of depression
located in the Pine Bluff and El Dorado areas. Similar to scenario 2,
the removal of selected withdrawals in the Pine Bluff and El Dorado
areas results in shallower, less expansive cones of depression
relative to scenario 1, however; recovery is less
because of continued increases in pumping elsewhere in the aquifer.
Hydraulic heads recover more than 100 ft by 2027 in Pine Bluff.
In El Dorado, hydraulic heads recover more than 124 ft by 2027.
Hydraulic heads also recover above the top of the Sparta Sand, as in Scenario 2,
by 2027 over most of Union County. However, the percentage area of Union
County where hydraulic heads are below the top of the Sparta Sand is greater compared to
Scenario 2 (16.6 percent compared to 7.3 percent in 2027).