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U.S. Geological Survey Bulletin 2172-D

Modified Arrington Method for Calculating Reserve Growth—A New Model for United States Oil and Gas Fields

By M.K. Verma


Version 1.0

In order to forecast reserve growth accurately for the U.S., the original Arrington (1960) method was reviewed. Cumulative growth factor smoothing produces better results and forms the basis for new growth functions (modified Arrington), which predict reserve growths that more closely resemble actual known hydrocarbon volumes, particularly oil, for a 5-year period (1992-1996).

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