For Virginia, an overall long-term decline in production
is indicated by the depletion of the major producing beds, a significant
decline in reserves at active mines, and the current 5-year decline
in production. Economic pressures brought on by low-cost western
coal for steam coal markets have resulted in a recent trend toward
larger, more economical mines. At present, coal reserves are
limited, although hypothetical, and cannot support long-term growth
of coal production in southwestern Virginia. Instead, steadily
decreasing reserves indicate that the current production decline
will persist into the next century. Changing economic conditions,
as well as improved thin-seam mining technology, however, could
reduce the decline rate and stabilize production at 20 to 30 million
tons annually toward the middle of the next century.
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