RESOURCES, RESERVES, FORECASTS, AND PROJECTIONS

In general, the coal produced in Virginia is of the highest quality produced anywhere in the Appalachian region (figs. 1, 2; table 1). The calorific value of Virginia's coal is about 25 .7 million Btu/ton. Average sulfur contents are about 1.1 percent, and ash yields are commonly less than 10 percent (EIA, 1994). About half of Virginia's coal production is estimated to be sold in metallurgical markets. About 40 percent is exported, chiefly for metallurgical markets; of the coal sold in the United States, about one-third is for metallurgical markets. Much of the remainder is shipped to coal-fired powerplants in Virginia and neighboring States.

Figure 1. Location of the southwestern Virginia coalfields (red).

This report uses current trends in historical production and reserve depletion to construct long-range projections of coal production from the southwestern Virginia fields. We use the near-normal distribution of the historical production curve for Pennsylvania's anthracite deposits as an analog for projecting Virginia's coal production into the next century. Pennsylvania "blue coal," hot and smokeless, was the environmentally preferred fuel of choice for residential and industrial purposes in the northeastern United States prior to World War II. Both of these mining areas are relatively small in comparison with the nearby Appalachian Plateau coalfields, and both contain low-sulfur, high Btu coals. In each of these coalfields, initial expansion was followed by a rapid growth in production that reflected the great demand for these high-quality resources. We anticipate that Virginia's coal production decline rate will be similar to its growth rate but in an opposite sense.

For the purposes of this report, previous coal resource and coal reserve estimates of governmental agencies, both State and Federal, are used as a starting point for production rate projections for the bituminous coalfields of Virginia. Prediction of future production rates for Virginia depends to a large extent on a reasonable approximation of the amount of coal in that State or region that may be produced economically. Coal reserve estimates for Virginia, based on the last national coal resource estimate made by the U.S. Geological Survey (Averitt, 1975) and on 10- to 20-percent recoverability factors determined generally from subsequent coal availability studies (Sites and Hostettler, 1991) and coal recoverability studies (Rohrbacher, and others, 1994; Staff,Intermontain Field Operations, 1995; Scott, 1995) are shown in table 1. Coal recoverability studies done in 14 quadrangles in the central Appalachian coalfield showed that 12 had a recoverability of 8.2 percent or less, one had a recoverability of 16.9 percent, and another had a rate of 26.4 percent.

Because availability and recoverability data are limited in amount and geographic distribution, they provide only the most general guidelines for regional reserve estimates. Reserve estimates made in this way have a low degree of geologic assurance and must be regarded as hypothetical. Furthermore, the Clean Air Act has had a significant negative impact on the competitiveness of high-sulfur coal in the U.S. steam coal market, and low sulfur coal deposits, such as Virginia's, are likely to be more competitive and preferentially mined during the next several decades than are the deposits of higher sulfur coal in the northern part of the Appalachian basin (Energy Information Administration, 1997).

Figure 2. Sulfur content of Virginia's coals (lb sulfur/MM Btu) (data from Energy Information Administration).