Conclusions

• Summer rains in western and southern Sudan have declined by 10–20 percent since the mid-1970s.
• Observed warming of more than 1 degree Celsius is equivalent to another 10–20 percent reduction in rainfall for crops.
• The warming and drying have impacted southern Darfur and areas around Juba.
• Rainfall declines west of Juba threaten southern Sudan’s future food production prospects.
• In many cases, areas with changing climate are coincident with zones of substantial conflict, suggesting some degree of association; however, the contribution of climate change to these conflicts is not currently understood.
• Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a more variable climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Sudan over the next 20 years.

First posted July 11, 2011