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Famine Early Warning Systems Network—Informing Climate Change Adaptation Series
A Climate Trend Analysis of Ethiopia
By Chris Funk, Jim Rowland, Gary Eilerts, Emebet Kebebe, Nigist Biru,
Libby White, and Gideon Galu
Abstract
This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), examines recent trends in March-June, June-September, and March-September rainfall and temperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in many areas of Ethiopia.
Conclusions:
• Spring and summer rains in parts of Ethiopia have declined by 15-20 percent since the mid-1970s.
• Substantial warming across the entire country has exacerbated the dryness.
• An important pattern of observed existing rainfall declines coincides with heavily populated areas of
the Rift Valley in south-central Ethiopia, and is likely already adversely affecting crop yields and pasture
conditions.
• Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a drier, warmer climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Ethiopia during the next 20 years.
• Many areas of Ethiopia will maintain moist climate conditions, and agricultural development in these areas could help offset rainfall declines and reduced production in other areas.
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First posted April 13, 2012
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Suggested citation:
Funk, C., Rowland, J., Eilerts, G., Kebebe, E., Biru, N., White, L.,and Galu, G., 2012, A Climate Trend Analysis of Ethiopia, U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2012–3053, 6 p.
Contents
Food Security Context: Complex Patterns of
Climate, Climate Change, and Livelihoods
Patterns of Climate Change: Growing
Season Rainfall has Declined by
15–20 Percent
Coincidence of Densely-Populated Areas
and Observed Declines in Rainfall
Observed Changes in Rainfall and
Temperature Projected Forward
An Acceleration of the Trends? Very Dry
Recent Weather
Hot-Spots of Climate Change: The Rift
Valley and Eastern Highlands Areas
The Interaction of Altitude and
Climate Change
Population Pressure and Stagnating
Agricultural Growth
Climatically Secure Areas
Some Implications for Climate
Adaptation Programming
Objectives and Methods
References