Fact Sheet 2012–3121
Each day, the U.S. Geological Survey produces 7-day forecasts for all Federal lands of the distributions of number of ignitions, number of fires above a given size, and conditional probabilities of fires growing larger than a specified size. The large fire probability map is an estimate of the likelihood that ignitions will become large fires. The large fire forecast map is a probability estimate of the number of fires on federal lands exceeding 100 acres in the forthcoming week. The ignition forecast map is a probability estimate of the number of fires on Federal land greater than 1 acre in the forthcoming week. The extreme event forecast is the probability estimate of the number of fires on Federal land that may exceed 5,000 acres in the forthcoming week.
First posted October 29, 2012
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Eidenshink, J.C., and Howard, S.M., United States Geological Survey fire science—Fire danger monitoring and forecasting (ver. 2, July 2015): U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2012–3121, 2 p., https://dx.doi.org/10.3133/fs20123121.