| Poisson Model for Number of Landslides in Seattle | R.A. Crovelli | ||||||
| Percent Chance of One or More Landslides During a Specified Time | |||||||
| Past (years): | 88.4 | ||||||
| Number of | Mean Recurrence | Time (years) | |||||
| Landslides | Interval (years) | 1 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 50 | 100 |
| 1 | 88.4 | 1.124847 | 5.499124 | 10.69585 | 24.63336 | 43.19869 | 67.73612 |
| 2 | 44.2 | 2.237042 | 10.69585 | 20.24768 | 43.19869 | 67.73612 | 89.59042 |
| 3 | 29.46666667 | 3.336726 | 15.60679 | 28.77786 | 57.19076 | 81.67369 | 96.64146 |
| 4 | 22.1 | 4.424041 | 20.24768 | 36.39567 | 67.73612 | 89.59042 | 98.91641 |
| 5 | 17.68 | 5.499124 | 24.63336 | 43.19869 | 75.68379 | 94.08722 | 99.65039 |
| 6 | 14.73333333 | 6.562115 | 28.77786 | 49.27407 | 81.67369 | 96.64146 | 99.8872 |
| 7 | 12.62857143 | 7.613149 | 32.69446 | 54.69964 | 86.18808 | 98.09231 | 99.96361 |
| 8 | 11.05 | 8.65236 | 36.39567 | 59.5449 | 89.59042 | 98.91641 | 99.98826 |
| 9 | 9.822222222 | 9.679882 | 39.89335 | 63.87191 | 92.15465 | 99.3845 | 99.99621 |
| 10 | 8.84 | 10.69585 | 43.19869 | 67.73612 | 94.08722 | 99.65039 | 99.99878 |
| 11 | 8.036363636 | 11.70038 | 46.32227 | 71.18701 | 95.54374 | 99.80142 | 99.99961 |
| 12 | 7.366666667 | 12.69362 | 49.27407 | 74.2688 | 96.64146 | 99.8872 | 99.99987 |
| 13 | 6.8 | 13.67568 | 52.06356 | 77.02097 | 97.46878 | 99.93593 | 99.99996 |
| 14 | 6.314285714 | 14.6467 | 54.69964 | 79.47877 | 98.09231 | 99.96361 | 99.99999 |
| 15 | 5.893333333 | 15.60679 | 57.19076 | 81.67369 | 98.56224 | 99.97933 | 100 |
| 16 | 5.525 | 16.55609 | 59.5449 | 83.63385 | 98.91641 | 99.98826 | 100 |
| 17 | 5.2 | 17.4947 | 61.76957 | 85.38434 | 99.18333 | 99.99333 | 100 |
| 18 | 4.911111111 | 18.42276 | 63.87191 | 86.94761 | 99.3845 | 99.99621 | 100 |
| 19 | 4.652631579 | 19.34038 | 65.85864 | 88.34368 | 99.53612 | 99.99785 | 100 |
| 20 | 4.42 | 20.24768 | 67.73612 | 89.59042 | 99.65039 | 99.99878 | 100 |
| 21 | 4.20952381 | 21.14477 | 69.51035 | 90.70381 | 99.73651 | 99.99931 | 100 |
| 22 | 4.018181818 | 22.03177 | 71.18701 | 91.69812 | 99.80142 | 99.99961 | 100 |
| 23 | 3.843478261 | 22.9088 | 72.77147 | 92.58607 | 99.85033 | 99.99978 | 100 |
| 24 | 3.683333333 | 23.77595 | 74.2688 | 93.37906 | 99.8872 | 99.99987 | 100 |
| 25 | 3.536 | 24.63336 | 75.68379 | 94.08722 | 99.91499 | 99.99993 | 100 |
| 26 | 3.4 | 25.48112 | 77.02097 | 94.71964 | 99.93593 | 99.99996 | 100 |
| 27 | 3.274074074 | 26.31934 | 78.28462 | 95.28442 | 99.95171 | 99.99998 | 100 |
| 28 | 3.157142857 | 27.14814 | 79.47877 | 95.78879 | 99.96361 | 99.99999 | 100 |
| 29 | 3.048275862 | 27.96761 | 80.60726 | 96.23922 | 99.97257 | 99.99999 | 100 |
| 30 | 2.946666667 | 28.77786 | 81.67369 | 96.64146 | 99.97933 | 100 | 100 |
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