Conclusions
The coastal change-potential index (CPI) provides insight into the relative potential of coastal change resulting from future sea-level change. The maps and data presented here can be viewed in at least two ways:
- as an indication of where physical changes to the coast are most likely to occur as sea level changes; and
- as a planning tool for the optimum management of Kenai Fjords National Park's natural and cultural resources.
As ranked in this study, geomorphology, shoreline change-potential, regional coastal slope and wave energy and are the most important variables in determining the CPI for Kenai Fjords NP. Tidal range and the current sea-level change do not contribute to the variability in the coastal change-potential index.
Kenai Fjords National Park preserves a dynamic natural environment, an environment which must be understood in order to be managed properly. The CPI is one way that park managers can assess objectively the natural factors that contribute to the evolution of the coastal zone, and thus how the park may evolve in the future.