Global Significance of Reserve Growth

OF 2005-1355

Global Significance of Reserve Growth

D.L. Gautier, T.R. Klett, and B.S. Pierce

The PDF for the Presentation is 3.3 MB

The presentation titled “Global Significance of Reserve Growth” in the form of graphic displays to accompany a commentary provides a general overview of the magnitude and significance of reserve growth in petroleum-bearing areas around the world. Reserve growth is defined as the increase in successive estimates of recoverable crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids and condensates in discovered fields. Reserves grow for a variety of reasons including advances in drilling/production technology, advances in exploration technology (such as 3-D and 4-D seismic), and advances in our geologic and engineering understanding of the petroleum reservoirs. Analysis of recent exploration and production data shows that, worldwide, petroleum (both crude oil and natural gas) volumes added to reserves by reserve growth are greater than the volumes of new-field discoveries.

This presentation describes reserve growth in local, regional, and global contexts, with examples from the San Joaquin Basin in California and from the North Sea. Results from a study of reserves in oil and natural gas fields of the U.S. and the rest of the world are discussed, and the implications of reserve growth to future petroleum supply are summarized.

This presentation was given to the Assistant Secretary for Water and Science of the Department of Interior in Washington, D.C. on July 7, 2004, staff members of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee in Washington, D.C., on July 8, 2004, staff members of the House of Representatives Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources in Washington, D.C., on July 8, 2004, and to the U.S. Geological Survey in Reston, Virginia, on July 9, 2004.

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
10⁹ Sm³	Billion standard cubic meters
10¹² ft³	Trillion cubic feet
BB	Billion (10⁹) barrels
bbls	Barrels
BBO	Billion (10⁹) barrels of oil
BBOE	Billion (10⁹) barrels of oil equivalent
MMBO	Million (10⁶) barrels of oil
PV	Present value
SJB	San Joaquin Basin
TCF	Trillion (10¹²) cubic feet
U.S.	United States
USGS	U.S. Geological Survey

REFERENCES

Ahlbrandt, T.S., and the USGS World Energy Assessment Team, 2001, World Petroleum Assessment 2000: Compiled PowerPoint slides: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 99-50-Z, 112 slides (http://greenwood.cr.usgs.gov/energy/WorldEnergy/OF99-50Z).
Brzozowska, J., Eriksen, S., Holm, L., and Olsen, S., 2003, Exploration history, in Evans, D., Graham, C., Armour, A., and Bathurst, P., eds., The millennium atlas: Petroleum geology of the central and northern North Sea: Geological Society of London. London. p. 331–343.
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Danish Energy Agency, 1983 to 2000, Oil and gas production in Denmark: Danish Energy Agency, Copenhagen (data from 1982 through 2000).
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Department of Trade and Industry, 1992 to 1993, Development of the oil and gas resources of the United Kingdom: Her Majesty’s Stationary Office, London (data from 1991 through 1992).
Department of Trade and Industry, 1994 to 1998, The energy report: Oil and gas resources of the United Kingdom, 2: The Stationary Office, London (data from 1993 through 1997).
Department of Trade and Industry, 1999, Development of the oil and gas resources of the United Kingdom: The Stationary Office, London (data for 1998).
Department of Trade and Industry, 2000 to 2001, Development of UK oil and gas resources: The Stationary Office, London (data from 1999 through 2000).
ESRI - Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc.
Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc., 1992, Arcworld digital map of the World: Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc., Redlands, California.
Hubbert, M.K., 1974, U.S. energy resources, a review as of 1972 part 1 prepared by M.K. Hubbert, research geophysicist, Office of Energy Resources, U.S. Geological Survey, at the request of Henry M. Jackson, chairman, Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs, United States Senate, June 1974: Pursuant to Senate Resolution 45, A national fuels and energy policy, Serial No. 93-40(92-75), Part 1, p.75.
IHS Energy, 1986 to 2003 [includes data current as of December, 2003], International petroleum exploration and production database: IHS Energy; database available from IHS Energy, 15 Inverness Way East, Englewood, CO 80112, U.S.A.
Lore, G.L., Brooke, J.P., Cooke, D.W., Klazynski, R.J., Olson, D.L., and Ross, K.M., 1996, Summary of the 1995 assessment of conventionally recoverable hydrocarbon resources of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf: Minerals Management Service OCS Report MMS 96-0047, 41 p. plus 5 appendices. NPD - Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.
Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, 1975 to 2000, Norwegian Petroleum Directorate Annual Report: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, Stavanger (data from 1975 through 2000).
NRG Associates, 2002 [includes data current as of December, 2000], The Significant Oil and Gas Fields of the United States: Colorado Springs, Colo., NRG Associates, Inc.; database available from NRG Associates, Inc., P.O. Box 1655, Colorado Springs, CO 80901, U.S.A.
Oil & Gas Journal, 1966, Where remaining reserves are stored: Oil & Gas Journal, v. 64, no. 5 (January 31, 1966), p. 165–176. USGS - U.S. Geological Survey.
U.S. Geological Survey National Oil and Gas Resource Assessment Team, 1995, 1995 National assessment of United States oil and gas resources: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1118, 20 p.
U.S. Geological Survey World Energy Assessment Team, 2000, U.S. Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000: U.S. Geological Survey Digital Data Series DDS-60, 4 CD-ROMs.

Slide Number and Content

Slide 1. Title page with listed authors.
Slide 2. Schematic cross section showing principal elements of reserve growth.
Slide 3. Plot showing relation among cumulative discoveries, cumulative production, and proved reserves with respect to time.
Slide 4. Plot showing increase in volume of cumulative recoverable oil with time (1896–1985) in the San Joaquin Basin.
Slide 5. Photograph of oil wells in the Midway-Sunset Field, San Joaquin Basin, with summary statistics for the number of wells drilled in the field (20,000+) and estimated volume of recoverable oil (1 BB). Also notes that in 1965, total oil reserves in the San Joaquin Basin were estimated at approximately 8 BB (cumulative production, 2 BB; remaining reserves, 6 BB). Steam flooding was a new technology at that time.
Slide 6. Plot showing changes in the volumes of recoverable crude oil with time in the San Joaquin Basin; curves are plotted for the years 1965, 1985, 1990, 1995, and 2000.
Slide 7. Lists principal causes of reserve growth, such as advances in exploration, drilling, and production technologies.
Slide 8. Plot showing changes in reserve growth with time at the South Belridge oil field, reflecting influences of various implementations of technology that enhanced oil recovery from 1935 to 2000.
Slide 9. Table showing discovery year, original oil in place, and percent recovery efficiency for 10 oil fields in the San Joaquin Basin.
Slide 10. Photograph of an early scene in one of the San Joaquin oil fields, as a lead-in to the question “Is this magnitude of reserve growth unique to the San Joaquin Basin?”
Slide 11. Map showing location of oil fields in North and Central North Sea.
Slide 12. Plot showing magnitude of reserve growth in North Sea oil fields, 1985–2000. Cumulative recoverable crude oil volumes are plotted against field-discovery years in 5-yr intervals. Reserve growth since 1985 is 1.9×10⁹ Sm³, whereas new-field discoveries since 1985 added only 0.3×10⁹ Sm³.
Slide 13. Plot showing magnitude of reserve growth in southern North Sea Gas Basin fields, 1986–2001. Cumulative recoverable natural gas volumes are plotted against field-discovery years in 5-yr. intervals. Reserve growth since 1986 is 0.5×10¹² Sm³, whereas new-field discoveries since 1986 added only 0.8×10¹² Sm³.
Slide 14. Map of the world as a lead-in to the next topic discussed.
Slide 15. Map of the world (same as slide 14), with the notation that in 1996 USGS estimated that existing fields might grow by 600 BB of oil.
Slide 16. Bar graph comparing actual and estimated global additions to reserves between 1996 and 2003. Bars show recoverable petroleum (barrels of oil equivalent) representing reserve growth in existing fields and new fields.
Slide 17. Bar graph showing additions to oil reserves between 1996 and 2003, by economic regions throughout the world.
Slide 18. Bar graph showing additions to global gas reserves between 1996 and 2003, by economic regions throughout the world.
Slide 19. Bar graph comparing actual and estimated additions to oil and gas reserves in the U.S. between 1992 and 2000. Reserve growth (in terms of barrels of oil equivalents) is shown for existing fields and new field discoveries.
Slide 20. Bar graph showing additions to oil reserves in various regions of the U.S. between 1992 and 2000.
Slide 21. Bar graph showing additions to gas reserves in various regions of the U.S. for the period 1992–2000.
Slide 22. Plots showing different approaches to characterizing relations between production and depletion as depicted by the Hubbert Curve and by the Plateau Concept, in terms of barrels of oil per year versus time.
Slide 23. Graphic presenting the theme of “What will drive future oil production” in terms of price (x-axis) and demand (y-axis) and curves showing relation between supply and demand.
Slide 24. Statement of conclusions regarding reserve growth.
Slide 25. End graphic, with names of authors and their e-mail addresses.

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OF 2005-1355