U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010-1019
Using calculated stress changes to faults surrounding the January 12, 2010, rupture on the Enriquillo Fault, and the current (January 12 to 26, 2010) aftershock productivity, scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), and Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University (DPRI) have made rough estimates of the chance of a magnitude (Mw)≥7 earthquake occurring during January 27 to February 22, 2010, in Haiti. The probability of such a quake on the Port-au-Prince section of the Enriquillo Fault is about 2 percent, and the probability for the section to the west of the January 12, 2010, rupture is about 1 percent. The stress changes on the Septentrional Fault in northern Haiti are much smaller, although positive.
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Lin, Jian, Stein, Ross S., Sevilgen, Volkan, and Toda, Shinji, 2010, USGS-WHOI-DPRI Coulomb stress-transfer model for the January 12, 2010, MW=7.0 Haiti earthquake: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010-1019, 7 p.
Interpretation of Stress Changes on the Enriquillo Fault
Probability of a Future Large Enriquillo Fault Rupture
Stress Imparted to the Septentrional Fault and Thrust Faults
Modeling Parameters and Assumptions