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Development of Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Climate Change Assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

By Thomas W. Doyle, Richard H. Day, and Thomas C. Michot

Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

First posted August 13, 2010 Full Report PDF (4.3 MB) Including appendixes Report PDF (3.3 MB) Report only (p. 1-10) Appendix 1 PDF (39 kB) Appendix 2 PDF (191 kB) Appendix 3 PDF (72 kB) Appendix 4 PDF (72 kB) Appendix 5 PDF (71 kB) Appendix 6 PDF (72 kB) For additional information contact: USGS National Wetlands Research Center 700 Cajundome Blvd. Lafayette, LA 70506 http://www.nwrc.usgs.gov/ Part or all of this report is presented in Portable Document Format (PDF); the latest version of Adobe Reader or similar software is required to view it. Download the latest version of Adobe Reader, free of charge.

Suggested citation:

Doyle, T.W., Day, R.H., and Michot, T.C., 2010, Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010–1165, 110 p.

Contents

Abstract

Vulnerability of Global Megadeltas to Sea Level Rise

Accelerated Sea Level Rise with Climate Change

Historical Eustatic Sea Level Rise of the China Sea

Land-Surface Elevation Change of Deltas

Relative Sea Level Trends for Coastal Vietnam

Global Tide Gage Stations and Records for Vietnam

Intra- and Inter-annual Sea Level Variability at Vung Tau

Rectification of the Vung Tau Sea Level Record

Developing Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the 21st Century

Conclusion

References Cited

Appendix 1. Mean monthly water level for the period 1979–2001 for Vung Tau, Vietnam, from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level Web site

Appendix 2. Hourly tide level for the period 2007–9 for Vung Tau, Vietnam, from the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center Web site

Appendix 3. Constructed sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta based on the IPCC A1F1 minimum accelerated eustacy rate for five different subsidence levels for 2010–2100

Appendix 4. Constructed sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta based on the IPCC A1F1 maximum accelerated eustacy rate for five different subsidence levels for 2010–2100

Appendix 5. Constructed sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta based on the IPCC B1 minimum accelerated eustacy rate for five different subsidence levels for 2010–2100

Appendix 6. Constructed sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta based on the IPCC B1 maximum accelerated eustacy rate for five different subsidence levels for 2010–2100