The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

Summary

The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

Chapters

Chapter A, The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario—Executive Summary and Introduction, by Stephanie L. Ross, Lucile M. Jones, Kevin Miller, Keith A. Porter, Anne Wein, Rick I. Wilson, Bohyun Bahng, Aggeliki Barberopoulou, Jose C. Borrero, Deborah M. Brosnan, John T. Bwarie, Eric L. Geist, Laurie A. Johnson, Stephen H. Kirby, William R. Knight, Kate Long, Patrick Lynett, Carl E. Mortensen, Dmitry J. Nicolsky, Suzanne C. Perry, Geoffrey S. Plumlee, Charles R. Real, Kenneth Ryan, Elena Suleimani, Hong Kie Thio, Vasily V. Titov, Paul M. Whitmore, and Nathan J. Wood

Chapter B, Alaska Earthquake Source for the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, by Stephen Kirby, David Scholl, Roland von Huene, and Ray Wells

Chapter C, Geologic Evidence for Distant-Source Tsunamis from New Field Data in California, Wilson and others

Chapter D, Modeling for the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario—Generation, Propagation, Inundation, and Currents in Ports and Harbors, by the SAFRR Tsunami Modeling Working Group

Chapter E, The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario—Physical Damage in California, by Keith Porter, William Byers, David Dykstra, Amy Lim, Patrick Lynett, Jamie Ratliff, Charles Scawthorn, Anne Wein, and Rick Wilson

Chapter F, Potential Environmental and Environmental-Health Implications of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario in California, by Geoffrey S. Plumlee, Suzette A. Morman, and Carma San Juan

Chapter G, Impacts to Ecosystems, Natural Resources and Fisheries, Brosnan and others

Chapter H, Economic Impacts of the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario in California, by Anne Wein, Adam Rose, Ian Sue Wing, and Dan Wei

Chapter I, Population Vulnerability and Evacuation Challenges in California for the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, by Nathan Wood, Jamie Ratliff, Jeff Peters, and Kimberley Shoaf

Chapter J, Emergency Management Response to a Warning-Level Alaska-Source Tsunami Impacting California, by Kevin M. Miller and Kate Long

Chapter K, Communication Products for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) Tsunami Scenario, by Suzanne Perry

Chapter L, Tsunami Mitigation and Preparedness Activities in California, by Rick Wilson and Kevin Miller

Chapter M, Public-Policy Issues Associated with the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, by Laurie A. Johnson and Charles R. Real

Download the Entire Report, (large file: of2013-1170_all.pdf, 897 pages, 110 MB)

Also of Interest

USGS Fact Sheet 2013–3081, The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario—Improving Resilience for California, by Stephanie L. Ross, Lucile M. Jones, Kevin Miller, Keith A. Porter, Anne Wein, Rick I. Wilson, Bohyun Bahng, Aggeliki Barberopoulou, Jose C. Borrero, Deborah M. Brosnan, John T. Bwarie, Eric L. Geist, Laurie A. Johnson, Stephen H. Kirby, William R. Knight, Kate Long, Patrick Lynett, Carl E. Mortensen, Dmitry J. Nicolsky, Suzanne C. Perry, Geoffrey S. Plumlee, Charles R. Real, Kenneth Ryan, Elena Suleimani, Hong Kie Thio, Vasily V. Titov, Paul M. Whitmore, and Nathan J. Wood

First posted September 3, 2013