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Open-File Report 2015–1009

Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

Update of the Graizer-Kalkan Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for Shallow Crustal Continental Earthquakes

By Vladimir Graizer and Erol Kalkan

Thumbnail of and link to report PDF (21 MB)Abstract

A ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) for computing medians and standard deviations of peak ground acceleration and 5-percent damped pseudo spectral acceleration response ordinates of maximum horizontal component of randomly oriented ground motions was developed by Graizer and Kalkan (2007, 2009) to be used for seismic hazard analyses and engineering applications. This GMPE was derived from the greatly expanded Next Generation of Attenuation (NGA)-West1 database. In this study, Graizer and Kalkan’s GMPE is revised to include (1) an anelastic attenuation term as a function of quality factor (Q0) in order to capture regional differences in large-distance attenuation and (2) a new frequency-dependent sedimentary-basin scaling term as a function of depth to the 1.5-km/s shear-wave velocity isosurface to improve ground-motion predictions for sites on deep sedimentary basins. The new model (GK15), developed to be simple, is applicable to the western United States and other regions with shallow continental crust in active tectonic environments and may be used for earthquakes with moment magnitudes 5.0–8.0, distances 0–250 km, average shear-wave velocities 200–1,300 m/s, and spectral periods 0.01–5 s. Directivity effects are not explicitly modeled but are included through the variability of the data. Our aleatory variability model captures inter-event variability, which decreases with magnitude and increases with distance. The mixed-effects residuals analysis shows that the GK15 reveals no trend with respect to the independent parameters. The GK15 is a significant improvement over Graizer and Kalkan (2007, 2009), and provides a demonstrable, reliable description of ground-motion amplitudes recorded from shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions over a wide range of magnitudes, distances, and site conditions.

First posted February 5, 2015

This publication is online only

For additional information, contact:
Earthquake Science Center—Menlo Park, Calif. Office
U.S. Geological Survey
345 Middlefield Road, MS 977
Menlo Park, CA 94025

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Suggested citation:

Graizer, V., and Kalkan, E., 2015, Update of the Graizer-Kalkan ground-motion prediction equations for shallow crustal continental earthquakes: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2015–1009, 79 p.,

ISSN 2331-1258 (online)




Dataset Selection

Functional Form of Ground-Motion Prediction Equation

Mixed-Effects Residuals Analysis

Terms of Standard Deviation

Model Results

Comparisons With Graizer-Kalkan 2007–2009 Models

Comparisons With NGA-West2 Models

Comparisons With Earthquake Data

Example Calculations Using MatLAB Codes

Range of Applicability

Concluding Remarks

Data and Resources



Appendixes (3)

Figures (54)

Table (5)

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