Revision History for OFR 2019-1127 Russell W. Perry, Amy C. Hansen, Scott D. Evans, and Tobias J. Kock Using the STARS Model to Evaluate the Effects of the Proposed Project for the Long-Term Operation of the State Water Project Incidental Take Permit Application and CEQA Compliance ----------------------------------------------------- First Posted online November 2019 ----------------------------------------------------- Version 2.0 posted February 2020 Updates made to existing product: Changed title from ", Using the STARS Model to evaluate the effects of the proposed project for the long-term operation of State Water Project Incidental Take Permit Application and CEQA compliance" to "Using the STARS Model to evaluate the effects of two proposed projects for the long-term operation of State Water Project Incidental Take Permit Application and CEQA compliance" Edited abstract, first paragarph: From "DWR requested assistance from the U.S. Geological Survey to aid in determining the effect of the proposed project on juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) populations migrating through the Delta. Therefore, in this report we analyzed an 82-year time series of simulated river flows and Delta Cross Channel (DCC) gate operations under two scenarios constructed for the ITP: the proposed project (PP) and the existing (EX) scenarios." to "DWR requested assistance from the U.S. Geological Survey to aid in determining the effect of two proposed projects on juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) populations migrating through the Delta. Therefore, in this report we analyzed an 82-year time series of simulated river flows and Delta Cross Channel (DCC) gate operations under three scenarios constructed for the ITP: the proposed project (PP), the second proposed project (PP2b) and the existing (EX) scenarios." Edited Abstract, second paragraph: From "To evaluate the proposed projects, we used the STARS model (Survival, Travel time, And Routing Simulation model), a stochastic, individual-based simulation model designed to predict survival of a cohort of fish that experience variable daily river flows during migration through the Delta." to "To evaluate the proposed projects (PP and PP2b), we used the STARS model (Survival, Travel time, And Routing Simulation model), a stochastic, individual-based simulation model designed to predict survival of a cohort of fish that experience variable daily river flows during migration through the Delta." Edited Abstract, third paragrah: Multiple edits to include PP2b scenario. Edited Introduction, second paragraph: From "We conducted survival, travel-time, and routing simulations for two scenarios, the existing (EX; operations currently used) and proposed project (PP; operations proposed for use in the future), to provide through-Delta survival and travel-time distributions for a cohort of 500 individual fish entering the Delta at Freeport on each day of an 82-year daily time series of Delta inflows." to "We initially conducted survival, travel-time, and routing simulations for two scenarios, the existing (EX; operations currently used) and proposed project (PP; operations proposed for use in the future), to provide through-Delta survival and travel-time distributions for a cohort of 500 individual fish entering the Delta at Freeport on each day of an 82-year daily time series of Delta inflows." Added "The PP scenario differed from the EX scenario in the minimum flow requirements below Keswick Dam, American River operations, Fall X2, Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta water quality standards, San Joaquin River inflow/export ratio, combined flow in the Old and Middle River, WIIN wetness table, Head of the Old River Barrier Gate, water quality at Vernalis, and the Stanilaus River Basin, and monthly SWP export estimates (written commun. Aaron Miller, January 21, 2020). After this report was published in November of 2019, DWR asked for an additional analysis of the proposed project 2b scenario (PP2b) in December of 2019 and this document was modified in February 2020. The PP2b scenario differed from the PP scenario in the San Joaquin River inflow/export ratio, combined flow in the Old and Middle River, WIIN wetness table, monthly SWP export estimates, SWP delivery logic, and SWP August export cut (written commun. Aaron Miller, January 21, 2020)." Edited Methods heading From "Comparing the Proposed Project and Existing Scenarios" to "Comparing the Proposed Projects and Existing Scenarios" Edited Methods, page 11 From "We presented data in the body of the report for two water years to represent model output; graphs for all 82 years are provided in appendixes 1–4." to "We presented data in the body of the report for two water years to represent model output; graphs for all 82 years are provided in appendixes 1–8." Multiple edits to include PP2b scenario. Edited Results and Discussion, first paragraph: From "We show detailed survival, travel time, and routing results for two water years—WYs 1955, a dry water year, and 1990, a critically dry water year." to "We show detailed survival, travel time, and routing results of the PP and EX scenarios for two water years—WYs 1955, a dry water year, and 1990, a critically dry water year." From "Results for each of the 82-year time series are in Appendix 1." to "Results of the PP and EX scenarios for each of the 82-year time series are in Appendix 1." Added "We only show detailed single-year examples of the PP and EX scenarios as the comparison between PP2b and EX scenarios are similar and found in Appendixes 5–8 (PP2b)." Edited Results and Discussion, fifth paragraph: From "Detailed graphs for each water year, which are available in online appendixes, indicated seasonal patterns similar to those for WYs 1955 and 1990 (appendixes 1–4)." to "Detailed graphs for each water year, which are available in online appendixes, indicated seasonal patterns similar to those for WYs 1955 and 1990 (EX and PP scenarios appendixes 1–4, EX and PP2b scenarios appendixes 5–8)." Added subsection heading in Results and Discussion: Proposed Project (existing text). First sentence on p. 22 changed from "Summaries of the 82-year simulation indicated consistent seasonal patterns between scenarios, reflecting seasonal differences in operation under each scenario." to "Summaries of the 82-year simulation indicated consistent seasonal patterns between the EX and the first proposed project (PP) scenarios, reflecting seasonal differences in operation under each scenario. " Moved figs 5-12 up before Proposed Project section heading. Last sentence on p. 13 changed from "Detailed graphs for each water year, which are available in online appendixes, indicated seasonal patterns similar to those for WYs 1955 and 1990 (appendixes 1–4)." to "Detailed graphs for each water year, which are available in online appendixes, indicated seasonal patterns similar to those for WYs 1955 and 1990 (Existing and Proposed Project scenarios appendixes 1–4, Existing and Proposed Project 2b scenarios appendixes 5–8)." Added subsection heading in Results and Discussion: Proposed Project 2b (new model results). Added text in Proposed Project 2b. Added figures 22 through 30: 82-year comparison between existing scenario and Proposed Project 2b. Added subsection heading: conclusions Moved three conclusion paragraphs to after Proposed Project 2b section and Conclusion section. Edited conclusion: Added first paragraph to conclusion section. Minor edits to include PP2b scenario. Added appendixes 5-8. 82 plots of each comparison between existing scenario and Proposed Project 2b.