Version History for U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2025-1047

Methodology and Technical Input for the 2025 U.S. List of Critical Minerals—Assessing the Potential Effects of Mineral Commodity Supply Chain Disruptions on the U.S. Economy

By Nedal T. Nassar, David Pineault, Sydney M. Allen, Dalton M. McCaffrey, Abraham J. Padilla, Jamie L. Brainard, Mani Bayani, Ensieh Shojaeddini, John W. Ryter, Sara Lincoln, and Elisa Alonso
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First posted online August 25, 2025

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Revised and reposted April 10, 2026 as version 2.0

References to a preprint and an article that had been in press at the time of first posting of this report were updated to reflect new details of their publication, on p. 32:
Ryter, J., and Nassar, N.T., 2025, Estimating the probability of export restrictions to inform mineral criticality: Resources, Conservation and Recycling, v. 226, article 108629, 12 p., Available Online November 17, 2025, accessed November 17, 2025, at https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5388963.
Shojaeddini, E., Alonso, E., Nassar, N.T., Pineault, D.G., Allen, S.M., Brainard, J.L., McCaffrey, D.M., O’Brien, T.M., Padilla, A.J., and Ryter, J.W., 2025, Understanding market sensitivity—Estimation of supply and demand elasticities for non-fuel minerals: Mineral Economics, accessed September 11, 2025, at https://doi.org/10.1007/s13563-025-00537-3.

Six appendixes were added, from p. 33 through 215. Citations of the appendixes in the text were updated, on p. 3 through 8.

The following sentence was added at the end of the first paragraph in the "Methods" section, on p. 2:
Details regarding specific sources and methods are found in the appendixes, which were initially published as a preprint (Nassar and others, 2025) before being edited and formatted for release in this version of this publication.

The following introduction to the appendixes was added, on p. 33:
The appendixes were initially published as a preprint (Nassar and others, 2025) before being edited and formatted for release in this version of this publication. The appendixes contain the following information:
• Appendix 1. World production and production capacity data
• Appendix 2. U.S. trade data of mineral commodities
• Appendix 3. Prices and price elasticities of supply and demand
• Appendix 4. Mineral commodity consumption by application and associated industry
• Appendix 5. Python implementation of the economic impacts model
• Appendix 6. Natural breaks classification

Reference Cited
Nassar, N.T., Pineault, D., Allen, S.M., McCaffrey, D.M., Padilla, A.J., Brainard, J.L., Bayani, M., Shojaeddini, E., Ryter, J.W., Lincoln, S., Alonso, E., 2025, Appendices for “Methodology and Technical Input for the 2025 U.S. List of Critical Minerals—Assessing the Potential Effects of Mineral Commodity Supply Chain Disruptions on the U.S. Economy”: Zenodo, preprint posted August 25, 2025, 233 p., accessed August 25, 2025, at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16538520.