James O. Lloyd-Smith P.L.F. Johnson W.M. Getz P.C. Cross 2005 <p>The epidemic potential of a disease is traditionally assessed using the basic reproductive number, <i>R</i>₀. However, in populations with social or spatial structure a chronic disease is more likely to invade than an acute disease with the same <i>R</i>₀, because it persists longer within each group and allows for more host movement between groups. Acute diseases &lsquo;perceive&rsquo; a more structured host population, and it is more important to consider host population structure in analyses of these diseases. The probability of a pandemic does not arise independently from characteristics of either the host or disease, but rather from the interaction of host movement and disease recovery timescales. The <i>R</i>_* statistic, a group-level equivalent of <i>R</i>₀, is a better indicator of disease invasion in structured populations than the individual-level <i>R</i>₀.</p> application/pdf 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00760.x en Blackwell Science Duelling timescales of host mixing and disease spread determine invasion of disease in structured populations article