J.E. Hines J.D. Lebreton R. Pradel J.D. Nichols 2000 <p><span>We consider methods for estimating the relative contributions of different demographic components, and their associated vital rates, to population growth. We identify components of the population at time&nbsp;</span><i>i</i><span>&nbsp;(including a component for animals not in the population at&nbsp;</span><i>i</i><span>). For each such component we ask the following question: “What is the probability that an individual randomly selected from the population at time&nbsp;</span><i>i</i><span>&nbsp;+ 1 was a member of this component at&nbsp;</span><i>i</i><span>?” The estimation methods for these probabilities (γ</span>_<i>i</i><span>) are based on capture–recapture studies of marked animal populations and use reverse-time modeling. We consider several different sampling situations and present example analyses for meadow voles,&nbsp;</span><i>Microtus pennsylvanicus.</i><span>&nbsp;The relationship between these γ</span>_<i>i</i><span>&nbsp;parameters and elasticities (and other parameters based on projection matrix asymptotics) is noted and discussed. We conclude by suggesting that model-based asymptotics be viewed as demographic theory and that direct estimation approaches be used to test this theory with data from sampled populations with marked animals.</span></p> application/pdf 10.1890/0012-9658(2000)081[3362:EOCTPG]2.0.CO;2 en Ecological Society of America Estimation of contributions to population growth: A reverse-time capture-recapture approach article