G. A. Bollinger S.P. Nishenko 1990 <p><span>Analysis of seismograph network data, earthquake catalogs from 1727 to 1982, and paleoseismic data for the central and eastern United States indicate that the Poisson probability of a damaging earthquake (magnitude ≥ 6.0) occurring during the next 30 years is at a moderate to high level (0.4 to 0.6). When differences in seismic wave attenuation are taken into account, the central and eastern United States has approximately two-thirds the likelihood of California to produce an earthquake with comparable damage area and societal impact within the next 30 years.</span></p> application/pdf 10.1126/science.249.4975.1412 en American Association for the Advancement of Science Forecasting damaging earthquakes in the central and eastern United States article