Reinold R. Cornelius B. Voight 1991 <p><span>The 'materials science' method for eruption prediction</span>^1–3<span>&nbsp;arises from the application of a general law governing the failure of materials: Ω</span><span class="stix">⊙</span>^−α<span>&nbsp;Ω¨ −&nbsp;</span><i>A</i><span>&nbsp;= 0, where&nbsp;</span><i>A</i><span>&nbsp;and α are empirical constants, and Ω is an observable quantity such as ground deformation, seismicity or gas emission. This law leads to the idea of the 'inverse-rate' plot, in which the time of failure can be estimated by extrapolation of the curve of Ω</span>⁻¹<span>&nbsp;versus time to a pre-deter-mined intercept. Here we suggest that this method can be combined with real-time seismic amplitude monitoring to provide a tool for near-real-time eruption prediction, and we demonstrate how it might have been used to predict two dome-growth episodes at Mount St Helens volcano in 1985 and 1986, and two explosive eruptions at Redoubt volcano in 1989–90.</span></p> application/pdf 10.1038/350695a0 en Springer Nature Prospects for eruption prediction in near real-time article