James C. Savage 1994 <div class="article-section__content en main"><p>Eight earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to seven have occurred in southern California in the past 200 years. If one assumes that such events are the product of a Poisson process, the probability of one or more earthquakes of magnitude seven or larger in southern California within any 30 year interval is 67% ± 23% (95% confidence interval). Because five of the eight M ≥ 7 earthquakes in southern California in the last 200 years occurred off of the San Andreas fault system, the probability of one or more M ≥ 7 earthquakes in southern California but not on the San Andreas fault system occurring within 30 years is 52% ± 27% (95% confidence interval).</p></div> application/pdf 10.1029/94GL00190 en Wiley Probability of one or more M ≥7 earthquakes in southern California in 30 years article