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<oai_dc:dc xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:oai_dc="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/ http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd">
  <dc:contributor>Helene Genet</dc:contributor>
  <dc:contributor>A. David McGuire</dc:contributor>
  <dc:contributor>Feng Sheng Hu</dc:contributor>
  <dc:creator>Ryan Kelly</dc:creator>
  <dc:date>2016</dc:date>
  <dc:description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;Wildfires play a key role in the boreal forest carbon cycle&lt;/span&gt;&lt;sup&gt;&lt;a id="ref-link-1" title="Kasischke, E. S. in Distribution of Forest Ecosystems and the Role of Fire in the North American Boreal Region (eds Kasischke, E. S. &amp;amp; Stocks, B. J.) 19-30 (Springer, 2000)." href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n1/full/nclimate2832.html#ref1"&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;,&amp;nbsp;&lt;a id="ref-link-2" title="Bond-Lamberty, B., Peckham, S. D., Ahl, D. E. &amp;amp; Gower, S. T. Fire as the dominant driver of central Canadian boreal forest carbon balance. Nature 450, 89-92 (2007)." href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n1/full/nclimate2832.html#ref2"&gt;2&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;span&gt;, and models suggest that accelerated burning will increase boreal C emissions in the coming century&lt;/span&gt;&lt;sup&gt;&lt;a id="ref-link-3" title="Balshi, M. S., McGuire, A. D. &amp;amp; Duffy, P. A. Vulnerability of carbon storage in North American boreal forests to wildfires during the 21st century. Glob. Change Biol. 15, 1491-1510 (2009)." href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n1/full/nclimate2832.html#ref3"&gt;3&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;span&gt;. However, these predictions may be compromised because brief observational records provide limited constraints to model initial conditions&lt;/span&gt;&lt;sup&gt;&lt;a id="ref-link-4" title="McGuire, A. D. et al. in Land Change Science (eds Gutman, G. et al.) 139-161 (Springer, 2004)." href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n1/full/nclimate2832.html#ref4"&gt;4&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;span&gt;. We confronted this limitation by using palaeoenvironmental data to drive simulations of long-term C dynamics in the Alaskan boreal forest. Results show that fire was the dominant control on C cycling over the past millennium, with changes in fire frequency accounting for 84% of C stock variability. A recent rise in fire frequency inferred from the palaeorecord&lt;/span&gt;&lt;sup&gt;&lt;a id="ref-link-5" title="Kelly, R. et al. Recent burning of boreal forests exceeds fire regime limits of the past 10,000 years. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 13055-13060 (2013)." href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n1/full/nclimate2832.html#ref5"&gt;5&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;led to simulated C losses of 1.4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class="mb"&gt;&lt;span class="mb"&gt;&amp;thinsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;kg&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class="mb"&gt;&lt;span class="mb"&gt;&amp;thinsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;C&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class="mb"&gt;&lt;span class="mb"&gt;&amp;thinsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;m&lt;/span&gt;&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;2&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;(12% of ecosystem C stocks) from 1950 to 2006. In stark contrast, a small net C sink of 0.3&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class="mb"&gt;&lt;span class="mb"&gt;&amp;thinsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;kg&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class="mb"&gt;&lt;span class="mb"&gt;&amp;thinsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;C&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class="mb"&gt;&lt;span class="mb"&gt;&amp;thinsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;m&lt;/span&gt;&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;2&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;occurred if the past fire regime was assumed to be similar to the modern regime, as is common in models of C dynamics. Although boreal fire regimes are heterogeneous, recent trends&lt;/span&gt;&lt;sup&gt;&lt;a id="ref-link-6" title="Kasischke, E. S. &amp;amp; Turetsky, M. R. Recent changes in the fire regime across the North American boreal region[mdash]Spatial and temporal patterns of burning across Canada and Alaska. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L09703 (2006)." href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n1/full/nclimate2832.html#ref6"&gt;6&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;and future projections&lt;/span&gt;&lt;sup&gt;&lt;a id="ref-link-7" title="Flannigan, M. D., stocks, B. J., Turetsky, M. R. &amp;amp; Wotton, M. Impacts of climate change on fire activity and fire management in the circumboreal forest. Glob. Change Biol. 15, 549-560 (2009)." href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n1/full/nclimate2832.html#ref7"&gt;7&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;point to increasing fire activity in response to climate warming throughout the biome. Thus, predictions&lt;/span&gt;&lt;sup&gt;&lt;a id="ref-link-8" title="Qian, H., Joseph, R. &amp;amp; Zeng, N. Enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake in the northern high latitudes in the 21st century from the coupled carbon cycle climate model intercomparison project model projections. Glob. Change Biol. 16, 641-656 (2010)." href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n1/full/nclimate2832.html#ref8"&gt;8&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;that terrestrial C sinks of northern high latitudes will mitigate rising atmospheric CO&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;2&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;may be over-optimistic.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</dc:description>
  <dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
  <dc:identifier>10.1038/nclimate2832</dc:identifier>
  <dc:language>en</dc:language>
  <dc:publisher>Nature</dc:publisher>
  <dc:title>Palaeodata-informed modelling of large carbon losses from recent burning of boreal forests</dc:title>
  <dc:type>article</dc:type>
</oai_dc:dc>