Reginald J. Uncles Noah Knowles 1995 <p>San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta have challenged estuarine modelers for some years. &nbsp;Accurate, broad-scale models of this estuary have been in demand by those concerned with its ecological health and the development of sound management policies. &nbsp;A description and better understanding of the dynamics that govern the bay/delta are complicated by the system's complexity, requiring models that are sophisticated enough to capture the subtle physical processes involved.</p> <p>One approach to simulating daily to monthly variability in the bay is the development of intertidal model using tidally-averaged equations and a time step on the order of the day. &nbsp;An intertidal numerical model of the bay's physics, capable of portraying seasonal and inter-annual variability, would have several uses. &nbsp;Observations are limited in time and space, so simulation could help fill the gaps. &nbsp;Also, the ability to simulate multi-year episodes (eg, an extended drought) could provide insight into the response of the ecosystem to such events. &nbsp;Finally, such a model could be used in a forecast mode wherein predicted delta flow is used as model input, and predicted salinity distribution is output with estimates days and months in advance. &nbsp;This note briefly introduces such a tidally-averaged model (Uncles and Peterson, in press) and a corresponding predictive scheme for baywide forecasting.</p> application/pdf en California Department of Water Resources Modeling and predicting intertidal variations of the salinity field in the Bay/Delta article