Martin K.-F. Bader Edward A.G. Schuur Christina Biasi Rosvel Bracho Petr Capek Sarah De Baets Katerina Diakova Jessica Ernakovich Cristian Estop-Aragones David E. Graham Iain P. Hartley Colleen M. Iversen Evan S. Kane Christian Knoblauch Massimo Lupascu Pertti J. Martikainen Susan M. Natali Richard J. Norby Jonathan A. O’Donnell Taniya Roy Chowdhury Hana Santruckova Gaius Shaver Victoria L. Sloan Claire C. Treat Merritt R. Turetsky Mark P. Waldrop Kimberly P. Wickland Christina Schädel 2016 <p><span>Increasing temperatures in northern high latitudes are causing permafrost to thaw</span><span>, making large amounts of previously frozen organic matter vulnerable to microbial decomposition</span><span>. Permafrost thaw also creates a fragmented landscape of drier and wetter soil conditions</span><span>&nbsp;that determine the amount and form (carbon dioxide (CO</span>₂<span>), or methane (CH</span>₄<span>)) of carbon&nbsp;(C) released to the atmosphere. The rate and form of C release control the magnitude of the permafrost C feedback, so their relative contribution with a warming climate remains unclear</span><span>. We quantified the effect of increasing temperature and changes from aerobic to anaerobic soil conditions using 25 soil incubation studies from the permafrost zone. Here we show, using two separate meta-analyses, that a 10</span><span class="mb"><span class="mb"> </span></span><span>°C increase in incubation temperature increased C release by a factor of 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.8 to 2.2). Under aerobic incubation conditions, soils released 3.4 (95%&nbsp;CI, 2.2 to 5.2) times more C than under anaerobic conditions. Even when accounting for the higher heat trapping capacity of CH</span>₄<span>, soils released 2.3 (95% CI, 1.5 to 3.4) times more C under aerobic conditions. These results imply that permafrost ecosystems thawing under aerobic conditions and releasing CO</span>₂<span> will strengthen the permafrost C feedback more than waterlogged systems releasing CO</span>₂<span> and CH</span>₄<span> for a given amount of C.</span></p> application/pdf 10.1038/nclimate3054 en Nature Potential carbon emissions dominated by carbon dioxide from thawed permafrost soils article