Rachel A. Loehman Robert E. Keane Jason A. Clark 2017 <p><span>We present landscape simulation results contrasting effects of changing climates on forest vegetation and fire regimes in Yellowstone National Park, USA, by mid-21st century. We simulated potential changes to fire dynamics and forest characteristics under three future climate projections representing a range of potential future conditions using the FireBGCv2 model. Under the future climate scenarios with moderate warming (&gt;2°C) and moderate increases in precipitation (3–5%), model simulations resulted in 1.2–4.2 times more burned area, decreases in forest cover (10–44%), and reductions in basal area (14–60%). In these same scenarios, lodgepole pine (</span><i>Pinus contorta</i><span>) decreased in basal area (18–41%), while Douglas-fir (</span><i>Pseudotsuga menziesii</i><span>) basal area increased (21–58%). Conversely, mild warming (&lt;2°C) coupled with&nbsp;greater increases in precipitation (12–13%) suggested an increase in forest cover and basal area by mid-century, with spruce and subalpine fir increasing in abundance. Overall, we found changes in forest tree species compositions were caused by the climate-mediated changes in fire regime (56–315% increase in annual area burned). Simulated changes in forest composition and fire regime under warming climates portray a landscape that shifts from lodgepole pine to Douglas-fir caused by the interaction between the magnitude and seasonality of future climate changes, by climate-induced changes in the frequency and intensity of wildfires, and by tree species response.</span></p> application/pdf 10.1002/ecs2.1636 en Ecological Society of America Climate changes and wildfire alter vegetation of Yellowstone National Park, but forest cover persists article