<?xml version='1.0' encoding='utf-8'?>
<oai_dc:dc xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:oai_dc="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/ http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd">
  <dc:contributor>Andrea L. Llenos</dc:contributor>
  <dc:contributor>Andrew J. Michael</dc:contributor>
  <dc:contributor>Morgan T. Page</dc:contributor>
  <dc:contributor>Nicholas van der Elst</dc:contributor>
  <dc:creator>Jeanne L. Hardebeck</dc:creator>
  <dc:date>2018</dc:date>
  <dc:description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;a class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-bibr" data-open="rf16"&gt;Reasenberg and Jones (1989)&lt;/a&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;introduced a statistical model for aftershock rate following a mainshock along with estimates of “generic” California parameter values based on past aftershock sequences. The&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;a class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-bibr" data-open="rf16"&gt;Reasenberg and Jones (1989)&lt;/a&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;model has been used for decades to issue aftershock forecasts following&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class="inline-formula no-formula-id"&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Element-1-Frame" class="MathJax" data-mathml="&lt;math xmlns=&amp;quot;http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML&amp;quot;&gt;&lt;mi xmlns=&amp;quot;&amp;quot;&gt;M&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo xmlns=&amp;quot;&amp;quot;&gt;&amp;amp;#x2265;&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mn xmlns=&amp;quot;&amp;quot;&gt;5&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/math&gt;"&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Span-1" class="math"&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Span-2" class="mrow"&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Span-3" class="mi"&gt;M&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Span-4" class="mo"&gt;≥&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Span-5" class="mn"&gt;5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;mainshocks in California. Here, we update the “generic” parameters for California through a fit to the aftershock sequences of&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class="inline-formula no-formula-id"&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Element-2-Frame" class="MathJax" data-mathml="&lt;math xmlns=&amp;quot;http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML&amp;quot;&gt;&lt;mi xmlns=&amp;quot;&amp;quot;&gt;M&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;mo xmlns=&amp;quot;&amp;quot;&gt;&amp;amp;#x2265;&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;mn xmlns=&amp;quot;&amp;quot;&gt;5&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/math&gt;"&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Span-6" class="math"&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Span-7" class="mrow"&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Span-8" class="mi"&gt;M&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Span-9" class="mo"&gt;≥&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Span-10" class="mn"&gt;5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;mainshocks occurring since 1980. We find aftershock productivity values that are lower on average than the generic productivity reported by&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;a class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-bibr" data-open="rf16"&gt;Reasenberg and Jones (1989)&lt;/a&gt;&lt;span&gt;, likely because low‐productivity sequences were omitted from their analysis and possibly because of a trade‐off between productivity and&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class="inline-formula no-formula-id"&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Element-3-Frame" class="MathJax" data-mathml="&lt;math xmlns=&amp;quot;http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML&amp;quot;&gt;&lt;mi xmlns=&amp;quot;&amp;quot;&gt;b&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;"&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Span-11" class="math"&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Span-12" class="mrow"&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Span-13" class="mi"&gt;b&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;‐value. We confirm the observation of&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;a class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-bibr" data-open="rf11"&gt;Llenos and Michael (2017)&lt;/a&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;that southern California sequences are more productive on average than northern California sequences. The Mendocino area is much less productive; the hydrothermal areas in Long Valley, Coso, and the Salton Sea, in contrast, are much more productive. We also quantify the variability of the&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;a class="link link-ref link-reveal xref-bibr" data-open="rf16"&gt;Reasenberg and Jones (1989)&lt;/a&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;productivity parameter&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class="inline-formula no-formula-id"&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Element-4-Frame" class="MathJax" data-mathml="&lt;math xmlns=&amp;quot;http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML&amp;quot;&gt;&lt;mi xmlns=&amp;quot;&amp;quot;&gt;a&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;"&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Span-14" class="math"&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Span-15" class="mrow"&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Span-16" class="mi"&gt;a&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class="MJX_Assistive_MathML"&gt;a&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;between sequences with a normal distribution. This distribution of&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class="inline-formula no-formula-id"&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Element-5-Frame" class="MathJax" data-mathml="&lt;math xmlns=&amp;quot;http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML&amp;quot;&gt;&lt;mi xmlns=&amp;quot;&amp;quot;&gt;a&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;"&gt;&lt;span class="MJX_Assistive_MathML"&gt;a&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;‐values can be used to compute aftershock forecasts that include epistemic uncertainty and can be used as the prior for Bayesian updating of the&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class="inline-formula no-formula-id"&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Element-6-Frame" class="MathJax" data-mathml="&lt;math xmlns=&amp;quot;http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML&amp;quot;&gt;&lt;mi xmlns=&amp;quot;&amp;quot;&gt;a&lt;/mi&gt;&lt;/math&gt;"&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Span-20" class="math"&gt;&lt;span&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Span-21" class="mrow"&gt;&lt;span id="MathJax-Span-22" class="mi"&gt;a&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class="MJX_Assistive_MathML"&gt;a&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;‐value as a sequence progresses.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</dc:description>
  <dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
  <dc:identifier>10.1785/0220180240</dc:identifier>
  <dc:language>en</dc:language>
  <dc:publisher>Seismological Society of America</dc:publisher>
  <dc:title>Updated California aftershock parameters</dc:title>
  <dc:type>article</dc:type>
</oai_dc:dc>