Ernesto L. Diaz
Nora L. Alvarez-Berrios
Felix Aponte-Gonzalez
Wayne Archibald
Jared H. Bowden
Lisamarie Carrubba
Wanda Crespo
Stephen J. Fain
Grizelle Gonzalez
Annmarie Goulbourne
Eric Harmsen
Eva Holupchinski
Azad H. Khalyani
James P. Kossin
Amanda J. Leinberger
Vanessa I. Marrero-Santiago
Odalys Martinez-Sanchez
Kathleen McGinley
Pablo Mendez-Lazaro
Julio Morrell
Melissa Melendez Oyola
Isabel K. Pares-Ramos
Roger Pulwarty
William V. Sweet
Adam J. Terando
Sigfredo Torres-González
David Reidmiller
C. W. Avery
D. R. Easterling
K. E. Kunkel
K. L. M. Lewis
T. K. Maycock
B. C. Stewart
William A. Gould
2018
<p>Historically, the U.S. Caribbean region has experienced relatively stable seasonal rainfall patterns, moderate annual temperature fluctuations, and a variety of<span> </span><a class="glossarizer_replaced" title="A weather event that is rare at a particular place and time of year, including, for example, heat waves, cold waves, heavy rains, periods of drought and flooding, and severe storms." data-toggle="tooltip" data-mce-tabindex="0">extreme weather</a><span> </span>events, such as tropical storms, hurricanes, and drought. However, the Caribbean climate is changing and is projected to be increasingly variable as levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase.</p><p>The high percentage of coastal area relative to the total island land area in the U.S. Caribbean means that a large proportion of the region’s people, infrastructure, and economic activity are vulnerable to sea level rise, more frequent intense rainfall events and associated coastal flooding, and saltwater intrusion. High levels of exposure and sensitivity to<span> </span><a class="glossarizer_replaced" title="Risks are threats to life, health and safety, the environment, economic well-being, and other things of value. Risks are often evaluated in terms of how likely they are to occur (probability) and the damages that would result if they did happen (consequences)." data-toggle="tooltip" data-mce-tabindex="0">risk</a><span> </span>in the U.S. Caribbean region are compounded by a low level of adaptive capacity, due in part to the high costs of mitigation and adaptation measures relative to the region’s gross domestic product, particularly when compared to continental U.S. coastal areas.<sup id="fnref:63e4948c-5b46-4deb-a37b-9f363a1a8316"></sup><span> </span>The limited geographic and economic scale of Caribbean islands means that disruptions from extreme climate-related events, such as droughts and hurricanes, can devastate large portions of local economies and cause widespread damage to crops, water supplies, infrastructure, and other critical resources and services.<sup id="fnref:63e4948c-5b46-4deb-a37b-9f363a1a8316"></sup></p><p>The U.S. Caribbean territories of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) have distinct differences in topography, language, population size, governance, natural and human resources, and economic capacity. However, both are highly dependent on natural and built coastal assets; service-related industries account for more than 60% of the USVI economy. Beaches, affected by sea level rise and erosion, are among the main tourist attractions. In Puerto Rico, critical infrastructure (for example, drinking water pipelines and pump stations, sanitary pipelines and pump stations, wastewater treatment plants, and power plants) is vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise,<span> </span><a class="glossarizer_replaced" title="The sea height during storms such as hurricanes that is above the normal level expected at that time and place based on the tides alone." data-toggle="tooltip" data-mce-tabindex="0">storm surge</a>, and flooding. In the USVI, infrastructure and historical buildings in the inundation zone for sea level rise include the power plants on both St. Thomas and St. Croix; schools; housing communities; the towns of Charlotte Amalie, Christiansted, and Frederiksted; and pipelines for water and sewage.</p><p><a class="glossarizer_replaced" title="Changes in average weather conditions that persist over multiple decades or longer. Climate change encompasses both increases and decreases in temperature, as well as shifts in precipitation, changing risk of certain types of severe weather events, and changes to other features of the climate system. [See also global change]" data-toggle="tooltip" data-mce-tabindex="0">Climate change</a><span> </span>will likely result in water shortages due to an overall decrease in annual rainfall, a reduction in ecosystem services, and increased risks for agriculture, human health, wildlife, and socioeconomic development in the U.S. Caribbean. These shortages would result from some locations within the Caribbean experiencing longer dry seasons and shorter, but wetter, wet seasons in the future. Extended dry seasons are projected to increase fire likelihood.<sup id="fnref:95ba66fd-036e-4d07-b247-3b7acb82bf35"><a onclick="return false;" rel="footnote" href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/20/#fn:10" data-mce-href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/20/#fn:10"></a></sup><span> </span>Excessive rainfall, coupled with poor construction practices, unpaved roads, and steep slopes, can exacerbate erosion rates and have adverse effects on reservoir capacity, water quality, and nearshore marine habitats.</p><p>Ocean warming poses a significant threat to the survival of corals and will likely also cause shifts in associated habitats that compose the coral reef<span> </span><a class="glossarizer_replaced" title="All the living things in a particular area as well as components of the physical environment with which they interact, such as air, soil, water, and sunlight." data-toggle="tooltip" data-mce-tabindex="0">ecosystem</a>. Severe, repeated, or prolonged periods of high temperatures leading to extended coral bleaching can result in colony death. Ocean acidification also is likely to diminish the structural integrity of coral habitats. Studies show that major shifts in fisheries distribution and changes to the structure and composition of marine habitats adversely affect food security, shoreline protection, and economies throughout the Caribbean.</p><p>In Puerto Rico, the annual number of days with temperatures above 90°F has increased over the last four and a half decades. During that period, stroke and cardiovascular disease, which are influenced by such elevated temperatures, became the primary causes of death. <sup id="fnref:cb5c02d3-6e9e-4dc5-8eaa-b87f57030bbf"></sup>Increases in average temperature and in extreme heat events will likely have detrimental effects on agricultural operations throughout the U.S. Caribbean region.<sup id="fnref:5e1d2291-b8e5-471f-8e5d-47ffb5ddde35"><a onclick="return false;" rel="footnote" href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/20/#fn:14" data-mce-href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/20/#fn:14"></a></sup><span> </span>Many farmers in the tropics, including the U.S. Caribbean, are considered small-holding, limited resource farmers and often lack the resources and/or capital to<span> </span><a class="glossarizer_replaced" title="Adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or changing environment that exploits beneficial opportunities or moderates negative effects." data-toggle="tooltip" data-mce-tabindex="0">adapt</a><span> </span>to changing conditions.<sup id="fnref:6bdfd0f0-ac10-4084-b2f2-f4819d47638b"></sup></p><p>Most Caribbean countries and territories share the need to assess risks, enable actions across scales, and assess changes in<span> </span><a class="glossarizer_replaced" title="All the living things in a particular area as well as components of the physical environment with which they interact, such as air, soil, water, and sunlight." data-toggle="tooltip" data-mce-tabindex="0">ecosystems</a>to inform decision-making on habitat protection under a changing climate.<span> </span>U.S. Caribbean islands have the potential to improve<span> </span><a class="glossarizer_replaced" title="Adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or changing environment that exploits beneficial opportunities or moderates negative effects." data-toggle="tooltip" data-mce-tabindex="0">adaptation</a><span> </span>and mitigation actions by fostering stronger collaborations with Caribbean initiatives on climate change and disaster risk reduction.</p>
application/pdf
10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH20
en
U.S. Global Change Research Program
U.S. Caribbean
reports