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<oai_dc:dc xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:oai_dc="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/ http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd">
  <dc:contributor>Lauren R. Kaiser</dc:contributor>
  <dc:contributor>Lisa Keith</dc:contributor>
  <dc:contributor>Jonathan Price</dc:contributor>
  <dc:contributor>R. Flint Hughes</dc:contributor>
  <dc:contributor>James D. Jacobi</dc:contributor>
  <dc:contributor>J. B. Friday</dc:contributor>
  <dc:creator>Lucas B. Fortini</dc:creator>
  <dc:date>2019</dc:date>
  <dc:description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;Hawai‘i’s most widespread native tree, ‘ōhi‘a lehua (&lt;/span&gt;&lt;i&gt;Metrosideros polymorpha&lt;/i&gt;&lt;span&gt;), has been dying across large areas of Hawai‘i Island mainly due to two fungal pathogens (&lt;/span&gt;&lt;i&gt;Ceratocystis lukuohia&lt;/i&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;and&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;i&gt;Ceratocystis huliohia&lt;/i&gt;&lt;span&gt;) that cause a disease collectively known as Rapid ‘Ōhi‘a Death (ROD). Here we examine patterns of positive detections of&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;i&gt;C. lukuohia&lt;/i&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;as it has been linked to the larger mortality events across Hawai‘i Island. Our analysis compares the environmental range of&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;i&gt;C. lukuohia&lt;/i&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;and its spread over time through the known climatic range and distribution of ‘ōhi‘a. Analyses show this fungal pathogen generally encompassed the core, but not the extremes of the climatic range of ‘ōhi‘a. We further modeled the potential distribution of&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;i&gt;C. lukuohia&lt;/i&gt;&lt;span&gt;across the Hawaiian Archipelago to estimate the risk of ROD to other islands. Given the potential for&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;i&gt;C. lukuohia&lt;/i&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;to alter the structure of ‘ōhi‘a dominated forests, we used our projected potential distribution of&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;i&gt;C. lukuohia&lt;/i&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;to assess the risk of ROD to threatened and endangered plant species across Hawai‘i. Many native plants are likely vulnerable to these types of large ‘ōhi‘a mortality events: of 234 endangered native plant species considered, 147 (62.8%) have more than half of their range within current and expanding&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;i&gt;C. lukuohia&lt;/i&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;suitable areas. We also found evidence that protecting habitat by fencing out introduced feral ungulates reduces the prevalence of the disease likely by reducing physical damage caused by these animals to ‘ōhi‘a trees, a precondition for&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;i&gt;Ceratocystis&lt;/i&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;infection. Given the ongoing spread of&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;i&gt;C. lukuohia&lt;/i&gt;&lt;span&gt;, we developed a dynamic web portal to host our results online, where models and analyses are updated with new lab-confirmed detections to provide managers with a useful tool to help monitor and assess the risk of&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;i&gt;C. lukuohia&lt;/i&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;as it continues to spread.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</dc:description>
  <dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
  <dc:identifier>10.1016/j.foreco.2019.06.025</dc:identifier>
  <dc:language>en</dc:language>
  <dc:publisher>Elsevier</dc:publisher>
  <dc:title>The evolving threat of rapid Ohia death (ROD) to Hawaii’s native ecosystems and rare plant species</dc:title>
  <dc:type>article</dc:type>
</oai_dc:dc>