John S. Pallister
Wendy A. McCausland
Julia P. Griswold
Supriyati Andreastuti
Agus Budianto
Sofyan Primulyana
Maurizio Battaglia
Angie Diefenbach
John W. Ewert
Peter J. Kelly
Christoph Kern
Martin R. LaFevers
Andrew B. Lockhart
Jeffrey N. Marso
Gari C. Mayberry
Steve P. Schilling
Rick Wessels
Randall A. White
Nurnaning Aisyah
Nugraha Kartadinata
Kristianto
Raditya Putra
Ugan Boyson Saing
Agus Solihin
Yasa Suparman
Devy Damil Syahbana
Hetty Triastuty
Heather M. Wright
2019
<div id="abstracts" class="Abstracts u-font-serif"><div id="ab0005" class="abstract author" lang="en"><div id="as0005"><p id="sp0065"><span>Eruptions of Sinabung <a title="Learn more about Volcano from ScienceDirect's AI-generated Topic Pages" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/volcano" data-mce-href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/volcano">volcano</a>, Indonesia have been ongoing since 2013. Since that time, the character of eruptions has changed, from phreatic to phreatomagmatic to magmatic explosive eruptions, and from production of a <a title="Learn more about Lava Dome from ScienceDirect's AI-generated Topic Pages" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/lava-dome" data-mce-href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/lava-dome">lava dome</a> that collapsed to a subsequent thick <a title="Learn more about Lava Flow from ScienceDirect's AI-generated Topic Pages" href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/lava-flow" data-mce-href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/lava-flow">lava flow</a> that slowly ceased to be active, and later, to a new lava dome. As the eruption progressed, event trees were constructed to forecast eruptive behavior six times, with forecast windows that ranged from 2</span> weeks to 1 year: November 7–10, December 12–14, and December 27, 2013; and January 9–10, May 13, and October 7, 2014. These event trees were successful in helping to frame the forecast scenarios, to collate current monitoring information, and to document outstanding questions and unknowns. The highest probability forecasts closely matched outcomes of eruption size (including extrusion of the first dome), production of pyroclastic density currents, and pyroclastic density current runout distances. Events assigned low probabilities also occurred, including total collapse of the lava dome in January 2014 and production of a small blast pyroclastic density current in February 2014.</p></div></div></div><ul id="issue-navigation" class="issue-navigation u-margin-s-bottom u-bg-grey1"></ul>
application/pdf
10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2018.02.003
en
Elsevier
Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013–14
article