Cecile Viboud Emily Howerton Claire P. Smith Shaun Truelove Michael C. Runge Nicholas G. Reich Lucie Contamin John Levander Jessica Salerno Wilbert van Panhuis Matt Kinsey Kate Tallaksen R. Freddy Obrecht Laura Asher Cash Costello Michael Kelbaugh Shelby Wilson Lauren Shin Molly Gallagher Luke Mullany Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett Joseph Lemaitre Juan Dent Kyra Grantz Joshua Kaminsky Stephen Lauer Elizabeth Lee Hannah Meredith Javier Perez-Saez Lindsay T. Keegan Dean Karlen Matteo Chinazzi Jessica Davis Kunpeng Mu Xinyue Xiong Ana Pastore y Piontti Alessandro Vespignani Ajitesh Srivastava Przemyslaw Porebski Srinivasan Venkatramanan Aniruddha Adiga Bryan Lewis Brian Klahn Joseph Outten James Schlitt Patrick Corbett Pyrros A. Telionis Lijing Wang Akhil S. Peddireddy Benjamin Hurt Jiangzhuo Chen Anil Vullikanti Madhav Marathe Jessica Healy Rachel B. Slayton Matthew Biggerstaff Michael A Johansson Katriona Shea Justin Lessler Rebecca K. Borchering 2021 <p><strong>What is already known about this topic?</strong></p><p>Increases in COVID-19 cases in March and early April occurred despite a large-scale vaccination program. Increases coincided with the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants and relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).</p><p><strong>What is added by this report?</strong></p><p>Data from six models indicate that with high vaccination coverage and moderate NPI adherence, hospitalizations and deaths will likely remain low nationally, with a sharp decline in cases projected by July 2021. Lower NPI adherence could lead to substantial increases in severe COVID-19 outcomes, even with improved vaccination coverage.</p><p><strong>What are the implications for public health practice?</strong></p><p>High vaccination coverage and compliance with NPIs are essential to control COVID-19 and prevent surges in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming months.</p> application/pdf 10.15585/mmwr.mm7019e3 en Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Modeling of future COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, by vaccination rates and nonpharmaceutical intervention scenarios — United States, April–September 2021 article