J. Zachary Koehn Alon Shepon Simone Passarelli Christopher M. Free Daniel Viana Holger Matthey Jacob G. Eurich Jessica A. Gephart Etienne Fluet-Chouinard Elizabeth A. Nyboer Abigail Lynch Marian Kjellevold Sabri Bromage Pierre Charlebois Manuel Barange Stefania Vannuccini Ling Cao Kristin Kleisner Eric Rimm Goodarz Danaei Camille DeDisto Heather Kelahan Kathryn J. Fiorella David C. Little Edward H. Allison Jessica Fanzo Shakuntala H. Thilsted Christopher D. Golden 2021 <div id="Abs1-section" class="c-article-section"><div id="Abs1-content" class="c-article-section__content"><p>Despite contributing to healthy diets for billions of people, aquatic foods are often undervalued as a nutritional solution because their diversity is often reduced to the protein and energy value of a single food type (‘seafood’ or ‘fish’)^{<a id="ref-link-section-d16285678e1131" title="Golden, C. D. et al. Nutrition: fall in fish catch threatens human health. Nature 534, 317–320 (2016)." href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03917-1#ref-CR1" data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" data-mce-href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03917-1#ref-CR1">1</a>,<a id="ref-link-section-d16285678e1131_1" title="Byrd, K. A., Thilsted, S. H. &amp; Fiorella, K. J. Fish nutrient composition: a review of global data from poorly assessed inland and marine species. Public Health Nutr. 24, 476–486 (2021)." href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03917-1#ref-CR2" data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" data-mce-href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03917-1#ref-CR2">2</a>,<a id="ref-link-section-d16285678e1131_2" title="Hicks, C. C. et al. Harnessing global fisheries to tackle micronutrient deficiencies. Nature 574, 95–98 (2019)." href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03917-1#ref-CR3" data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" data-mce-href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03917-1#ref-CR3">3</a>,<a id="ref-link-section-d16285678e1134" title="Bernhardt, J. R., &amp; O’Connor, M. I. Aquatic biodiversity enhances multiple nutritional benefits to humans. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 118, e1917487118 (2021)." href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03917-1#ref-CR4" data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 4" data-mce-href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03917-1#ref-CR4">4</a>}. Here we create a cohesive model that unites terrestrial foods with nearly 3,000 taxa of aquatic foods to understand the future impact of aquatic foods on human nutrition. We project two plausible futures to 2030: a baseline scenario with moderate growth in aquatic animal-source food (AASF) production, and a high-production scenario with a 15-million-tonne increased supply of AASFs over the business-as-usual scenario in 2030, driven largely by investment and innovation in aquaculture production. By comparing changes in AASF consumption between the scenarios, we elucidate geographic and demographic vulnerabilities and estimate health impacts from diet-related causes. Globally, we find that a high-production scenario will decrease AASF prices by 26% and increase their consumption, thereby reducing the consumption of red and processed meats that can lead to diet-related non-communicable diseases^{<a id="ref-link-section-d16285678e1138" title="Manson, J. E. et al. Marine n−3 fatty acids and prevention of cardiovascular disease and cancer. N. Engl. J. Med. 380, 23–32 (2019)." href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03917-1#ref-CR5" data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 5" data-mce-href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03917-1#ref-CR5">5</a>,<a id="ref-link-section-d16285678e1141" title="Meat, Fish and Dairy Products and the Risk of Cancer. Continuous Update Project Expert Report 2018 (World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research, 2018)." href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03917-1#ref-CR6" data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" aria-label="Reference 6" data-mce-href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03917-1#ref-CR6">6</a>}<span>&nbsp;</span>while also preventing approximately 166 million cases of inadequate micronutrient intake. This finding provides a broad evidentiary basis for policy makers and development stakeholders to capitalize on the potential of aquatic foods to reduce food and nutrition insecurity and tackle malnutrition in all its forms.</p></div></div> application/pdf 10.1038/s41586-021-03917-1 en Nature Aquatic foods to nourish nations article