Anne Wein
Kevin M. Befus
Juliette Finzi-Hart
Mike Frame
Rachel Volentine
Patrick L. Barnard
Keith L. Knudsen
Alex R. Grant
2021
<div id="texttabcontent" class="tab-pane no-scroll show-content left-sided" aria-labelledby="texttab"><div class="NLM_sec NLM_sec_level_1 hlFld-Abstract"><p>This paper studies the impacts of sea-level rise on liquefaction triggering and severity around the San Francisco Bay Area, California, for the M 7.0 “HayWired” earthquake scenario along the Hayward fault. This work emerged from stakeholder engagement for the US Geological Survey releases of the HayWired earthquake scenario and the Coastal Storm Modeling System projects, in which local planners and engineers asked where, why, and by how much liquefaction hazards may change due to sea-level rise in the future. We assess the impacts of sea-level rise on liquefaction by computing changes in liquefaction potential index (LPI) for over 400 cone penetration test (CPT) soundings around the San Francisco Bay for groundwater table models developed for current and increased sea levels of up to 5 m. For the M 7.0 HayWired earthquake scenario, we find that while the majority of sites are insensitive to sea-level changes of less than 1 m, some sites are highly sensitive to small changes in water levels. We then repeat these analyses for a uniform shaking scenario to isolate the effects of sea-level rise and we find similar patterns of change. For both earthquake scenarios, modest changes in overall LPI are expected for increases in sea level, but individual sites may see significant increases in liquefaction likelihood and severity.</p></div></div><div id="infotabcontent" class="tab-pane side-pane info-tab-content css-scroll active mCustomScrollbar _mCS_1 custom-scroller wow" aria-labelledby="infotab"><div id="mCSB_1" class="mCustomScrollBox mCS-dark-3 mCSB_vertical mCSB_inside"><div id="mCSB_1_container" class="mCSB_container" dir="ltr"><br></div></div></div>
application/pdf
10.1061/9780784483695.030
en
American Society of Civil Engineers
Changes in liquefaction severity in the San Francisco Bay Area with sea-level rise
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