Max Post van der Burg Rachel Fern John W. Jones Rachel Lo Owen P. McKenna Brian Tangen Zhen Zhang Robert A. Gleason Sheel Bansal 2023 <p><span>Natural methane (CH</span>₄<span>) emissions from aquatic ecosystems may rise because of human-induced climate warming, although the magnitude of increase is highly uncertain. Using an exceptionally large CH</span>₄<span>&nbsp;flux dataset (~19,000 chamber measurements) and remotely sensed information, we modeled plot- and landscape-scale wetland CH</span>₄<span>&nbsp;emissions from the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), North America’s largest wetland complex. Plot-scale CH</span>₄<span>&nbsp;emissions were driven by hydrology, temperature, vegetation, and wetland size. Historically, landscape-scale PPR wetland CH</span>₄<span>&nbsp;emissions were largely dependent on total wetland extent. However, regardless of future wetland extent, PPR CH</span>₄<span>&nbsp;emissions are predicted to increase by two- or threefold by 2100 under moderate or severe warming scenarios, respectively. Our findings suggest that international efforts to decrease atmospheric CH</span>₄<span>&nbsp;concentrations should jointly account for anthropogenic and natural emissions to maintain climate mitigation targets to the end of the century.</span></p> application/pdf 10.1126/sciadv.ade1112 en AAAS Large increases in methane emissions expected from North America’s largest wetland complex article