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<oai_dc:dc xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:oai_dc="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/ http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd">
  <dc:contributor>John B. Bradford</dc:contributor>
  <dc:contributor>Charles B. Yackulic</dc:contributor>
  <dc:contributor>Seth M. Munson</dc:contributor>
  <dc:creator>Caroline A. Havrilla</dc:creator>
  <dc:date>2023</dc:date>
  <dc:description>&lt;h3 id="ddi13669-sec-0001-title" class="article-section__sub-title section1"&gt;Aim&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;p&gt;Grasslands cover a third of Earth's landmass and provide critical ecosystem services. Anticipating how perennial C&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;(cool-season) and C&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;(warm-season) grasses respond to climate change will be key to predicting future composition and functioning of grasslands. Here, we evaluate environmental drivers of C&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;and C&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;perennial distributions and assess how C&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;and C&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;grass distributions shift in response to future climate change.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;h3 id="ddi13669-sec-0002-title" class="article-section__sub-title section1"&gt;Location&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;p&gt;Western United States.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;h3 id="ddi13669-sec-0003-title" class="article-section__sub-title section1"&gt;Methods&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;p&gt;We developed integrated species distribution models to identify climate and soil drivers of relative abundance of C&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;and C&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;perennial grasses. We then created projections of species abundances under future climate and evaluated when and where projected shifts in relative abundance were robust across climate models.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;h3 id="ddi13669-sec-0004-title" class="article-section__sub-title section1"&gt;Results&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;p&gt;Historically, C&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;grasses occupied areas with lower temperature and more variable precipitation regimes, while C&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;grasses occupied areas of higher temperature, greater temperature variability and greater warm-season precipitation. C&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;species also occupied narrower soil texture niches. In response to future climate change, C&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;grass abundance declined across 74% of areas, while C&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;abundance increased across 66% of areas. C&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;grasses expanded in mid- to higher-latitude areas with increasing temperature and decreasing seasonality of precipitation. In contrast, C&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;grasses increased in higher-latitude regions, but declined in lower-latitude, dryer regions. Results were surprisingly robust across climate scenarios, suggesting high confidence in the direction of these future changes.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;h3 id="ddi13669-sec-0005-title" class="article-section__sub-title section1"&gt;Main Conclusions&lt;/h3&gt;&lt;p&gt;Findings imply C&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;and C&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;perennial grasses will have highly divergent responses to climate change that may result in grassland functional compositional changes. Increasing temperatures and precipitation variability may favour some C&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;grasses, but C&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;habitat expansion may be constrained by soil conditions in western USA. Results provide actionable insights for anticipating the impacts of climate change on grass-dominated and co-dominated ecosystems and improving large-scale conservation and restoration efforts.&lt;/p&gt;</dc:description>
  <dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
  <dc:identifier>10.1111/ddi.13669</dc:identifier>
  <dc:language>en</dc:language>
  <dc:publisher>Wiley</dc:publisher>
  <dc:title>Divergent climate impacts on C3 versus C4 grasses imply widespread 21st century shifts in grassland functional composition</dc:title>
  <dc:type>article</dc:type>
</oai_dc:dc>