Lauren T. Toth Ian C. Enochs Carly J. Randall Richard B. Aronson Victor Rodriguez-Ruano 2023 <div id="Abs1-section" class="c-article-section"><div id="Abs1-content" class="c-article-section__content"><p>The eastern tropical Pacific is oceanographically unfavorable for coral-reef development. Nevertheless, reefs have persisted there for the last 7000&nbsp;years. Rates of vertical accretion during the Holocene have been similar in the strong-upwelling Gulf of Panamá (GoP) and the adjacent, weak-upwelling Gulf of Chiriquí (GoC); however, seasonal upwelling in the GoP exacerbated a climate-driven hiatus in reef development in the late Holocene. The situation is now reversed and seasonal upwelling in the GoP currently buffers thermal stress, creating a refuge for coral growth. We developed carbonate budget models to project the capacity of reefs in both gulfs to keep up with future sea-level rise. On average, the GoP had significantly higher net carbonate production rates than the GoC. With an estimated contemporary reef-accretion potential (RAP) of 5.5&nbsp;mm&nbsp;year⁻¹, reefs in the GoP are projected to be able to keep up with sea-level rise if CO₂<span>&nbsp;</span>emissions are reduced, but not under current emissions trajectories. With an estimated RAP of just 0.3&nbsp;mm&nbsp;year⁻¹, reefs in the GoC are likely already unable to keep up with contemporary sea-level rise in Panamá (1.4&nbsp;mm&nbsp;year⁻¹). Whereas the GoP has the potential to support functional reefs in the near-term, our study indicates that their long-term persistence will depend on reduction of greenhouse gases.</p></div></div> application/pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-28489-0 en Nature Upwelling, climate change, and the shifting geography of coral reef development article