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<oai_dc:dc xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:oai_dc="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc/ http://www.openarchives.org/OAI/2.0/oai_dc.xsd">
  <dc:contributor>Todd Hawbaker</dc:contributor>
  <dc:contributor>John Kevin Hiers</dc:contributor>
  <dc:contributor>Jason W. Kean</dc:contributor>
  <dc:contributor>Rachel A. Loehman</dc:contributor>
  <dc:contributor>Paul F. Steblein</dc:contributor>
  <dc:creator>Adam Gerhard Wells</dc:creator>
  <dc:date>2023</dc:date>
  <dc:description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Background:&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;Burn severity significantly increases the likelihood and volume of post-wildfire debris flows. Pre-fire severity predictions can expedite mitigation efforts because precipitation contributing to these hazards often occurs shortly after wildfires, leaving little time for post-fire planning and management.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Aim:&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;The aim of this study was to predict burn severity using pre-fire conditions of individual wildfire events and estimate potential post-fire debris flow to unburned areas.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Methods:&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;We used random forests to model dNBR from pre-fire weather, fuels, topography, and remotely sensed data. We validated our model predictions against post-fire observations and potential post-fire debris-flow hazard estimates.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Key results:&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;Fuels, pre-fire weather, and topography were important predictors of burn severity, although predictor importance varied between fires. Post-fire debris-flow hazard rankings from predicted burn severity (pre-fire) were similar to hazard assessments based on observed burn severity (post-fire).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Conclusion:&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;Predicted burn severity can serve as an input to post-fire debris-flow models before wildfires occur, antecedent to standard post-fire burn severity products. Assessing a larger set of fires under disparate conditions and landscapes will be needed to refine predictive models.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Implications:&lt;span&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;Burn severity models based on pre-fire conditions enable the prediction of fire effects and identification of potential hazards to prioritise response and mitigation.&lt;/p&gt;</dc:description>
  <dc:format>application/pdf</dc:format>
  <dc:identifier>10.1071/WF22200</dc:identifier>
  <dc:language>en</dc:language>
  <dc:publisher>CSIRO Publishing</dc:publisher>
  <dc:title>Predicting burn severity for integration with post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment: A case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin, USA</dc:title>
  <dc:type>article</dc:type>
</oai_dc:dc>